moving forward, page-4

Hi Hans Brix,

I've been watching the car racing (Townsville) on TV & the weather outside here is ordinary, so sloshing down the bundies..hic.. ;)

Thought I'd look at trying to predict the amount of ore PEN will have based on current averages
(basically averaging out the averages over the time frames indicated
& the change to the previous period.

As I can't post a spread sheet here, the best I can do is post a screen print (two actually).
Tried to format it so that it is easy to read & see the calculations implied.

Just read the 'boxes' in their entirity before moving onto the next.

Open to ridicule & can alter if any errors are obvious.

The assumption here is that things will continue within the norm (or average) going forward.
The final numbers seemed higher than what I would have guessed so I'm still looking for an input error
(haven't found it yet, as I was expecting increase in lbs of around 10-12 mlbs, it kicked out a number of 14mlbs???

& posted a graph with a move ave trend line & surprisingly looks like it belongs, but as the trend line is kicking up it implies that the rate of change in increasing (may not be possible).

Still see it as a buy, but need the finance approval on the desk to kick this along.

Hope it makes sense, without being too time consuming.

M

Data came from PEN graph in investor announcement May 2012 p 24