Hey Transveral, wasn't really looking for your approval to hold...

Hey Transveral, wasn't really looking for your approval to hold the stock but I'll take it nonetheless.

@zeus1234

There was no approval or disapproval of your choices in my words; I simply respect your decision to hold, based on your own interpretation of facts. Period.

Anyway, your approach struck a cord with me because that was the way I use to approach my investing until I realised it was wrong. If you take your approach, ASB would have struggled to be worth more than $0.50 at any point over its lifetime.

I am not sure what you mean by “your approach” (as in, mine), but we’re clearly not looking at things the same way. For, as of FY2020, Austal had 0.75$/share in Net Cash, 0.75$-0.90$/share in expected cumulative Free Cash Flow from their existing order book, and a Support business that (assuming Revenue of 360m$ pa growing gradually to 500m$ pa, as per your slide, and at the stated target EBIT margin of ~8.0%) could have been worth at least an extra 1.00$-1.25$/share. We must be talking at cross purposes.

With specific reference to your slide, the fact that they are now calling that natural progression from 360m$ pa to 500m$ pa “totally aspirational” means to me that they are placing a high degree of uncertainty as to whether they’ll be able to secure support contracts even on their own ships.

Also let’s not forget that, between the time when that slide was released and now, a 27.5m$ acquisition has been made to strengthen the Support business, with an initial target of 5m$ FY2021 EBITDA growing at a 4-year CAGR of 22% pa; why hasn’t the Support revenue target been increased accordingly, and whatever happened to those forecast earnings, which as far as I can recollect haven’t been mentioned again since?