Given that so few (and no Western) sites have yet proceeded to commercial operation, in what sense do you mean some lignite projects failed?
I’ve read just two sites have resulted in groundwater contamination. One was Hoe Creek (which was sub-bituminous coal), I’m not sure which the other was. And following Hoe Creek, nobody’s going to be trying to gasify a coal seam which is an active aquifer (geological constraint), nor will they increase the operating pressure substantially over hydrostatic (process control constraint).
Still, we are agreed coal rank is no magic bullet. Lignite is a plus (both from UCG working better and digging it up to burn working worse) but there are other important factors. Which, no doubt, is why Cougar also tell us the immediate overburden is limestone. However I can’t interpret that. Limestone is matrix impermeable, which is highly desirable, but acidic groundwater can cut fissures through it so the bed as a whole may not be.
As to Kingaroy’s chances of contaminating groundwater, it’ll be a while before we know for sure (though I think “years” exaggerates) but it’s not a big risk. Few sites have done so, the world has learnt from their experience, and the site looks suitable to those with about the most experience of UCG and operating burns in the Western world.
If you wish to hang your hat on the Chinchilla site, then fine, it has proved suitable. But it’s equally reasonable to hang it on the experienced personnel.
Re LNC’s demo plant – this isn’t really the place so I’ll put something up for your comment over there in time.
Re financing the 40MW, remember that Cougar’s working interest is only 70%. So, subject to suitable debt finance, that’s around $15m to find. Not so much after option exercise – and maybe nothing if GE let their turbine go on credit.
The flip side of course is that the cash flow from this initial venture will merely be useful, not outstanding. But, if it pans out, the credibility from having a genuinely economic UCG project running will be huge. There aren’t too many of them about! Getting stage 2 off the ground (or stage 1 elsewhere) will be a lot easier then than it would be now.
“What effect do you think this credit crunch will have on these small spec stocks?” Of course it’ll make raising finance on keen terms harder for the time being. But as the share price has taken a hammering, that’s already accounted for and a bit extra as well. It’ll be a few months though before finance needs lining up – and Linc are in the same boat too.
LNC Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Sell Disclosure: Not Held
