I think it is reasonable but of course not the only possible...

I think it is reasonable but of course not the only possible outcome...there is the fact the new boss bought $150k of shares on market recently and took the CEO gig. Perhaps the correct interpretation of that is, despite a likelihood of the next quarter or two being under, the long term is rosier? I can't imagine he'd take the gig or waste cash if he thought it was a lost cause....but perhaps I am giving too much credit.

If guidance is missed or costs show a rise then I think you will find not all has been baked in. If this happens, we will be back to in the 20's or 30's imo unless there is a very good and credible explanation on how it will be resolved.