MOY Valuation

At the bottom of this post is my brief valuation of MOY - which came to $0.211.

Thus, if you believe MOY can deliver on their guidance going forward (certainly no guarantee considering recent performance), then MOY is a great buying opportunity.
Those with less appetite for risk might choose to wait for next production update or quarterly report for evidence of improved performance.

There is significant upside to the valuation:

• I use a conservative POG number ($1,900 AUD/oz), current POG is $2,100 and likely to be higher in coming years
• MOY's hedge book is minimal, providing high exposure to rising POG (or falling!)
• LOM extension is likely

Risks to the valuation:

• The key risk is MOY continuing to fail in delivering on their guidance
• Gold price may fall (contrary to expectations)
• AISC may be higher
• Other risks typically associated with mining stocks

Disclosure: I don't own MOY but looking to gain exposure in the coming weeks.

Quarterly Profits
Gold production = 25,000 oz/qtr (basis: midpoint of guidance for half year ending Dec 2019)
AISC = $1,435 AUD/oz (basis: delivered figure for month of June)
Sale price = $1,900 AUD/oz (basis: 50 day moving average gold price @ 27/06/19)

Profit before tax = $11,625,000 AUD/qtr
Australian company tax rate = 27.5%
After tax profit (S) = $8,428,125 AUD/qtr

Stock Valuation
Cash & bullion (C) = $14.3 million AUD (basis: june quarterly report)

Discount rate (r) = 5% p.a. = 1.25% per qtr
Earning period (n) = 6 years = 24 qtrs (basis: current LOM + 50%)
Company present value (PV) = S x ((1 - (1 / (1 + r) ^ n)) / r) + C = $188,123,626 AUD

Number of ordinary shares (q) = 891,186,531
Stock value = PV/q = $0.211 AUD/share