Yes MP has had a few good days but still way overvalued. Still way down from its resent highs. of $52. Many of its top holders including CEO and founder have sold all their shares recently. Here are just a few per share numbers from
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MP/key-statistics?p=MPBook value per share 6,10 most companies book and share are equal fast growing companies maybe 2 or 3 to one. Now software companies and others that have little capital equipment this can go to even 5 or 10 to one. MP is in a very capital intensive industry.
Revenue per share 1.65 Again this is usually close to 1 to 1 with share price. and that is for companies making 10 % on revenue. MP is 31 % which is fantastic I would keep a close Eye on RE carbonate prices if I held.
https://www.metal.com/ConcentrateSome people expect MP to go down. On October 15th shorts were 14% of share float. Vs Lynas which are 3%
Shorts to day are 11% their might have been a small squez in last week or so. no big change in shorts yesterday.
I recently posted a letter from MP answering some questions I had. Other than price expansion of product they sell I see little chance for expansion in next few years. RE Carbonate which is what they sell has only gone from 48.5 to 57.5 in last 30 days 18% Vs NdPR oxide 600 to 777 30%. I wonder if buyers of MP are watching NdPr prices and not realizing that is not what they sell. also MPs Carbonate is only 5% NdPr Vs Lynas which is 10 %. and MP has very little heavies. It is manly La and Ce which has gone down a little in last year. La Ce Prices are so low Lynas does not even finish about 1.3 of its La and CE.
So the only conclusion I see is MP is overvalue much more than Lynas but they are both extremely overvalued and things like this always come to a dramatic and unexpected end.
Right now there are things still in place that will keep them going up but they must be watched carefully.
- Lose money flowing into market from governments. This is inflating prices of all markets.
- Green speculation Causing excessive speculation on any thing green.
- Very high REE prices. Even any basic economics course will tell you that what we have seen just does not happen with normal supply and demand. It will fall apart dramatically.
I read an article this AM about Tesla. Even if the BEV market was 30% in 2030 and Tesla was selling 100% of those cars with no competitors with profits double what they are today There stock price would be about half of what it is to day. Tesla's Market CAP is bigger than the next 9 automakers does that make any sense to any body.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/Enjoy the run ups they are great. Understand what is happening so you can keep most of your gains.
Comment on gov money Many people think BoE will raise interest rates in November from 0.10% to 0.25%. Will US Fed actions cause some countries to follow?
BoE Preview: Rate Hike Imminent? - Action Forex The FED action of cutting back QE by 15 B a month by itself is unlikely to have much impact for 4 to 6 months But if others follow it could be faster. Germany rate is currently 0.109% and they are seeing high inflation as well. China is just under 3% they were raising rates aggressively but dropped them in response to real estate problems.
China 10 Years Bond - Historical Data (worldgovernmentbonds.com)
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