I agree, $0.018 - $0.02 is far below what I'd expect on signing. Price behavior seen in early 2016 gave a glimpse of what we might happen on signing, and if anything, has set a psychological benchmark.
Can't say my expectations regarding timing align with the 4 week prediction though. Let's say the review is complete and lodged with NITI by month end. Following will be a review by NITI, and if there are no issues, the organisation of a signing ceremony. Realistically, and under the optimistic assumption of no further requirements from NITI, I'd put a 2 month plus time-frame on this. Like you, there isn't much basis for my speculative opinion.
All IMO
I agree, $0.018 - $0.02 is far below what I'd expect on signing....
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