Your hip pocket couldn’t care less whether it was the drug that...

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whenwill

168 Posts.

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22/12/20

14:23

Post #: 49757139
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Originally posted by Southoz: ↑

Geez you guys are really putting the pressure on. At this time of year it’s very hard to take anything too seriously. But when you only have two fans in life you can’t afford to disappoint them.

So Ill give you guys two options for trial result analysis.

Option A; the vibe of thing.

Julia Lee has let the cat out of the bag and nailed it. If the results come out this year they will be bad. If next year good.

The logic. Bad news always comes in a clump of three. Currently the Trial God is looking at a hat trick. Three balls, three wickets, three failed P3 trials.

But the God of Murphy from which Murphys Law is derived says not so quick. The FDA rejection counts as the start of the bad news; so Mesonights have had their serve of three and the whole thing needs to reset.

So there is a standoff. Who wins? Well Murphy obviously. Everything that happens in a drug company simply either makes commercialisation less or more difficult; slower or quicker. The truth about anything is an epistemological question for first year Philosophy students.

Your hip pocket couldn’t care less whether it was the drug that failed in the trial or it was the trial that failed the drug. Or whether there were early signs of efficacy in the Covid trial. Or whether the mortality benefit in the CHF is true. (Ps it’s not true - the 60% is derived from a hazard ratio (HR=0.40) subject to selection bias and is impossible to interpret substantively in isolation.)

So basically you have had your three bits of bad news (from the commercialisation point of view) and the whole thing needs to reset for next year. The Trial God misses out on his hat trick. But if he sneaks in this year - its disaster. Because the failure now also means Meso is on its next run of three bad things.

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Your hip pocket couldn’t care less whether it was the drug that failed in the trial or it was the trial that failed the drug.

Last edited by whenwill: 22/12/20

MSB Price at posting: $2.18 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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