Just going to look back at the prior TA I did and how it...

Just going to look back at the prior TA I did and how it compares:


Posted this chart in early Jan - obvs the price went a bit higher as part of a blow off move, but the overall analysis showing the weakening demand over time was correct.



This was the suggested price action half way through Jan - the last upthrust identified as an upthrust after distribution - hard to tell exactly when the final upthrust was and spent a bit of time after that trying to work out where/when it would hit (the fib chart I posted on 20 Feb saying it was a potential target turned out to be the actual top. MQG trades very cleaning according to Fib retracements and extensions. Obviously at the time I thought more likely outcome would be an NEA style sell off with distribution occuring over months rather than weeks but....



You can see that the chart gave basically the same warning - an intitial sell off to the support zone at $130 with an attempt to rally off the support zone.

The inability to put in any sort of rally of strenth and constant selling marked it as the last point of supply. Once that passed it started moving into crash mode - though has obviously had some face ripper rallies on the way down not really captured on a daily chart.

Hourly chart shows it falling in a descending wedge (opposite of an ascending wedge) so once the selling is flushed out and it breaks out of the supply line there could be an attempt at a buying reaction. Given current global economic state though I'd say stronger chance any trading range that develops is more likely to be a redistribution than accumulation but would have to see how it develops.


Stomach churning seeing this fall and feel for holders who held through. My TA earlier on was presicely to warn about this sort of possible price action coming up despite all the scepticism/criticism I received for it at the time. The reaction of the move is surprising but the fact it has fallen is not when you consider the trend reversal structure I was pointing out earlier. As trend reversal (ie bullish) structures start showing up in the chart again it will be time to consider buying.