UBS says Macquarie's trading update "reads worse than the market expected" as it implies a fall in net profit after tax, though FY25 earnings are "more likely weighted toward 2H25" and "the market will need to trust Macquarie's 2H25 guidance."
UBS analyst John Storey notes that consensus has 1H25 NPAT rising about 33 per cent on-year to $1.9bn versus a soft 1H24 of $1.4bn, or $4.1bn for FY25.
"MQG are outlining 1Q25 operating performance is in line with expectations, the group's full year performance now more likely weighted toward 2H 25," he says.
"The FY24 profit split was 39/61 per cent and the implied FY25 split is 45/55 per cent which we think will now clearly need to be adjusted."
But divisional commentary and short term outlook "reads okay."
"Macquarie potentially have a few aces up their sleeve (like AirTrunk) which could cushion the impact of this worse than expected update," Storey says.
But Macquarie Asset's timing of performance fees is "still an issue".
"Overall, Macquarie appear confident in the H2 25 outlook," he says.
UBS has a Neutral rating and $200 a share target.
MQG last down 4 per cent at 3.7 per cent at $201.07 after hitting $200.
