I read Morgan Stanley forecast a $150m impairment charge in 2H relating to principal investment in renewables.
I also just read the following from The Australian.
The Australian understands Macquarie is hosting the tour from March 10, in an attempt to boost investor and analyst knowledge of the firm’s presence, assets and strategy in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).
The event has a strong line-up including three Macquarie group executives that run divisions, and the company’s chief financial officer Alex Harvey.
Head of commodities and global markets Simon Wright, asset management boss Ben Way and head of Macquarie Capital Michael Silverton are the executives presenting on the tour, while investors and analysts will also hear from EMEA chief Rachel Palmer.
The multi-day event is also scheduled to include a deep dive into assets including the VERKOR Gigafactory, which manufactures battery cells for electric vehicles, and a visit to UK-based VIRTUS Data Centres.
A Macquarie spokeswoman confirmed the tour was occurring, but declined to comment on the details.
Macquarie generates 65 per cent of its income outside Australia, making its international operations of great interest to the investment community.
But ahead of a quarterly trading update by Macquarie next week, some analysts are casting doubt on the group’s ability to continue to complete asset sales.
JPMorgan analyst Andrew Triggs this week placed Macquarie on “negative catalyst watch” ahead of its third-quarter update on Tuesday.
“We expect the update to reveal soft capital recycling trends in Q3, due to a prolonged weak recovery in transaction velocity,” he said. “This is apparent with Macquarie only completing one notable asset sale that we can see in the half to date AGS Airports, which sits in MEIF 4 (Macquarie European Infrastructure Fund 4).”
That note and a paring by Morgan Stanley analysts of their earnings expectations for Macquarie saw the stock slump 3.6 per cent to $229.38 on Wednesday, bucking a 0.5 per cent gain in the S&P/ASX200.
Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Andrei Stadnik, cut their earnings-per-share target for 2025 and 2026 by 3 per cent, saying they expected tougher realisation conditions for renewable assets. They said that could be “partly offset” by asset under management benefits of a lower Australian dollar and stronger mortgage growth.
While Morgan Stanley reduced its earnings estimates for Macquarie the analysts raised their price target on the stock to $255 from $248.
Macquarie rules off its full-year results on March 31 and consensus estimates have the company reporting annual profit of $3.82bn, up from $3.52bn in 2024, but well down on a peak of almost $5.2bn the prior year.
Macquarie chief executive Shemara Wikramanayake has previously indicated it has a host of assets earmarked for sale under the right conditions including green assets such as solar energy company Cero and then offshore wind firm Corio.
Macquarie last year divested its stake in data centre business AirTrunk, alongside PSP Investments, in a mammoth $24bn deal to Blackstone and its Canadian partner.
Macquarie’s 60 per cent holding in AirTrunk was held via its second Asia-Pacific Infrastructure Fund, and banking analysts have estimated the group may reap performance fees as high as $1.3bn from the sale over several years.
The company has made a big push into the growing data centre industry over the past five years.
Macquarie’s asset management unit last month upped its exposure in the US through an investment and funding deal with Applied Digital Corporation, worth up to $US5bn.
Ms Wikramanayake has provided divisional guidance for Macquarie which paints a mixed picture for the group in the short term.
She warned of lower commodities income in its biggest unit (by earnings contribution), the commodities and global markets arm.
At its interim results, Macquarie flagged it expected flat investment-related income in its investment banking arm, Macquarie Capital, “supported by growth of the private credit portfolio and asset realisations”.
That was a downgrade from its prior guidance that investment-related income was expected to be higher.
(20min delay)