MQG overvalued in the current market, page-5

What is the share price range for MQG?

This as I said before best of the class and ridiculously efficient in making money with an ROI of 19. anything over 10 is good, over 15 is exceptional and, 19 is in a class on its own. However, I still think it is overvalued.

For me the top is obvious. This is 194 dollars. That is the capital raise price. MQG are masters of capital allocation and, they usually dilute capital when it is overvalued. At least that is what I have observed in the past.

What are the bottom ranges? This going to be a very large range but the 2020 March value I think is comparable and probably the worst-case scenario. PE is very unreliable as earnings collapse in a recessionary environment and PE artificially gets elevated. ROI and ROA tend to be similarly very poor indicators. PB is better. P/TBV is the better measure if you have considerable goodwill on the balance sheet.

Some basic math as I think complicated math does no justice to the sentiment of the market which plays an outsize role when earnings are about to collapse which is my base case scenario. After listening to Target and Walmart's results, I am convinced that this has already commenced.The lowest level was reached at PE 6.48PB 1.09: lucky enough to buy very close to this last time. That comes close to 86 dollars. If it reaches anywhere near this, I would bet my house on it.For people who think this is not possible (I am one of them), there is too much debt in the system due to the sheer stupidity of the central banks and the amount of stimulus from the government. FED is tightening and we have not been in this environment and is bad for growth companies as the value of the future earnings is discounted. You have to at least assign a 10% probability to this.

I have seen the gradual progression of "smart money". Four months ago, people thought 20-25% chance of a recession. Now stagflation is mainstream. If you listen to Jamie Dimon, 66% chance of recession. 1/3 shallow recession and 1/3 deep recession. People tend to underestimate an effect of a credit event in these scenarios.

In summary, the range of possibilities over the next 12 months as I see it is 86 dollars to 194 dollars. Therefore the reason we have more downside to MQG.Interesting to hear from others what they think? I understand the dollar cost average is a sound strategy, but as I have alluded to in my previous posts, I rarely buy or sell stocks unless there is an event or some mismatch in pricing.