Glad to see you praising Peter.. even if it was Molloy and not Cook! Haha.
Its hard to estimate the likelihood of repeated Phase II trials in Western populations/markets based on what we know since we dont have any published data from the trials.
It was a non-inferiority trial, which means that as long as it was "x" % within tamiflu's effectiveness (eg. within 15%), it would be successfully described as non-inferior. This is quite different to powering a study to detect a statistically significant positive difference in efficacy. However, non-inferiority in this case would suffice as one only wants to know that it is AS GOOD AS tamiflu at least to use it becuase of its other advantages (once weekly dosing, potential less resistance etc).
Clinical trials are never a given and there is a definite risk it will not be reproduced in anohter study.. however, it appears it was a well designed, randomised controlled trial whihc should have eliminated most confounders between trial groups. There was an interesting comments in another post commenting on the Forbes article which stated that DS stated that laninimavir was more efficacious than tamiflu and adult and paediatric populations... which means it was not just non-inferior.. this bodes well for a repeat trial to confirm non-inferiority.
Knowing how statistically significant the results were would also greatly help work out the probabilities of repeated success. but overall, i imagine they would be good..
looking forward to seeing what the market does over the next few days. pity the DOW and ASX-200 have risen so sharply recently.. poses a risk, albeit in the short term..
A.
BTA Price at posting:
$2.17 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
