Hi all,
Good share price movement today, which is partly explained by Goldman Sachs upgrade (from hold to buy). I am citing from their report.
Risks to Australian domestic reopening diminishing; government actions suggest timing could occur pre-Christmas
We have become more confident that a re-opening of Australian domestic aviation markets will occur pre-Christmas given: (i) the alignment of the rates of community transmission across the Australia states; (ii) recent moves to relax border restrictions; and (iii) the introduction of tourism stimulus, all ahead of the critical summer holiday period. We expect a staggered approach to the re-opening of the Australian states starting with NSW, and the formation of a limited trans-Tasman bubble from December.
NZ experience suggests pent-up demand will deliver a solid recovery profile
In order to model the magnitude of the recovery, we draw on the NZ domestic market experience which has shown a solid recovery in domestic activity to c.70% of pre-covid levels, led by (i) solid elastic demand for leisure travel; (ii) supplemented by a 65-70% recovery in corporate travel; (iii) positive reception to sale events; (iv) facilitating good load factors and RASK growth.
Prefer Australian domestic exposure; Risk/return on airlines has improved; Buy QAN.AX, SYD.AX
Our overarching view is a preference for Australian exposed stocks, given: (i) the Australian domestic recovery remains in its infancy; and (ii) the stocks are better structured to profitably leverage a domestic market recovery. Further, with our increased confidence in the near term resumption of domestic activity in Australia, we now believe the risk/return balance for airlines is more attractive. We revise our estimates and 12-month target prices across our coverage, we upgrade QAN to Buy from Neutral (TP A$5.28, +30% upside) and reiterate Buy on SYD.AX (TP A$7.02, +19% upside). We remain Sell rated on AIR.NZ (TP NZ$1.34, -4% downside).
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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6 | 106346 | $6.74 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$6.75 | 2974 | 1 |
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4 | 105817 | 6.740 |
2 | 54471 | 6.730 |
2 | 35063 | 6.720 |
3 | 26197 | 6.710 |
3 | 17477 | 6.700 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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6.750 | 2974 | 1 |
6.770 | 93580 | 8 |
6.780 | 65760 | 3 |
6.790 | 32806 | 4 |
6.800 | 181249 | 17 |
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