Mr NST.ax/Bill Beament's Other Baby, page-694

More about the future direction of $CU rather VXR specifically. I've heard a few prognostications through media about the future CU spot price hitting $15,000 per tonne within the next few years. Considering the recent price rises in CU I was interested* (trying to remain objective rather than getting too excited) to read the below article on * that was posted a couple of days ago. Don't think I've seen it posted on this thread and not sure about the validity / reliability of this website or it's research. I've posted part of the article below also. In addition to the geopolitical risk identified for Congo below I think that Chile is proposing a bill to increase the royalty fees for copper mines by 75% at current prices. I'd imagine this would have big impacts on BHP and Rio via Escondina?
https://unauthorised investment advice/resources/heres-why-the-experts-are-saying-the-copper-bull-run-could-reach-us33000/


The laundry list of factors driving the copper bull run just keeps getting longer and the price expectations are off the charts, with market watchers predicting the red metal could top US$33,000 ($42,507) a tonne before the end of the decade.

The copper price hit an all-time-high of $US10,724 a tonne last month, notching an over 35 per cent gain since the start of the year. It is still up nearly 26 per cent, hovering just below $US10,000 a tonne.

Late last week the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — the world’s leading producer of cobalt and Africa’s biggest copper producer — made good on a longstanding threat to ban cobalt and copper concentrate exports.

While the risk in the DRC appears more to do with raising the cost of exports to direct more miners towards in-country smelting as opposed to a total export ban, it is yet another factor that could weigh on an already constrained market at a time of rapidly rising demand.

The copper price has been one of the top performing commodities this year, along with iron ore which also hit all-time highs, and the bulls are out in force with several market commentators stressing the copper market is at the start of a new ‘super-cycle’.

“Copper has emerged as a leader in this commodity bull market. We are strong believers that copper prices are heading significantly higher,” Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg, managing partners of New York-headquartered resources fund manager Goehring & Rozencwajg, said recently.“

"After bottoming at US$1.95 per pound in early 2016, copper prices have more than doubled. Copper equities (as measured by the COPX ETF) have done even better, rallying over 200 per cent — more than twice the increase of the S&P 500.”

Goehring & Rozencwajg noted that the previous copper bull run took place between 2001 and 2011 and saw prices rise seven-fold, from US$0.60 to US$4.62 per pound.

“We wholeheartedly embraced that copper bull market and maintained sizable exposure throughout the rally,” they said.

“The fundamentals today are even more bullish. We would not be surprised to see copper prices again advance a minimum of seven-fold before this bull market is over.“

Using US$1.95 as our starting point, we expect copper prices to potentially peak near US$15 (US$33,069) per pound by the latter part of this decade.”

Niv Dagan, executive director at boutique investment firm Peak Asset Management, told * in mid-May he expected to see copper rise above US$15,000/tonne over the next 12 months.

“Global EV demand, stockpiling combined with depleted inventories, will be the key catalyst,” he said.