Massively over-valued company imo. +900M SOI fully diluted, half of them given away to Billy et al bottom of the bull market not that I'm complaining did pretty well myself. I get the cult following ramp thing (worked tremendously for Musk) but resources are not tech or industrials where a good idea can be cheaply leveraged into multiples of production and disrupt an industry.... either you have the right rocks or you don't, and the right rocks only make so much profit.
I'm no hero calling 90c the top in hindsight, but with the GM out of the way, Billy set like jelly, and the chart breaking down it looks like selling the bounces to lock in profits or selling the falls to stop losses from here on out. SS is an alright deposit, obviously not a world beater. 2018 DFS failed to get funded under cover of WA EPA bastardry but just how tricked up was from the last guy it in the first place? Looks like the banks independent experts tore it a new one while saying "thanks but no thanks" to finance in 2019 judging by the capex blowout seemingly announced out of nowhere Apr'20. Never seen an unfunded developer release a pessimistic project costing, why would you, but then out of the blue comes this llittle capex shocker.
Keep in mind that was after covid smashed the market and it wasn't unreasonable to expect engineering companies to work just for a feed. WA is in the early stage of a massive mine build investment cycle that's seeing costs sky-rocket. My eyes are watering to imagine what the actual capex will come in at for SS trying to elbow their way to the front of a under-staffed, over-priced development boom unless they delay a couple of years for the borders to open. Less fashionable new mine developers are getting smashed on this reality but some like VXR seem to be above it for no reason I can see.
Yeah yeah, I know it's a Cu-Zn super cycle but then again we've heard that story before. Funny how high prices are the cure for high prices, nothing worse than paying through the nose to develop top of the cycle and ramp up production into falling prices. Not that it bothers most here I'm sure.. trade the trade and get out right. I expect the market all has their eyes on the exit at right price, a price derived from la more sober commodity deck and cost outlook than most here I suspect. Only 3 weeks until the end of fin year and how many are sitting on multi-bags just waiting for July to tick over and put that CGT off another 12 months (not many wouldn't be sitting on huge CG already in this market one would think).
Or is everybody waiting for billy to build NST Mk2? Building NST by hoovering up old but quality assets cheap during a gold price downturn seems quite different from trying to hoover up cheap base metal assets during a boom. In this type of boom owners of all base metal assets no matter how crappy are asking telephone numbers (mobile not landline) so I really can't see how VXR can grow without overpaying big time, let alone growing a NST type monster under the radar?. One could argue VXR stock is over-valued so paying overs with over-valued script is a wash but colour me old fashioned if that doesn't sound like the top of every boom. Over-valued is over-valued and the losers always seem to be those late to the party or who hold on too long. I'll be watching for the July 1st unveil to see what rabbit he pulls out of the hat myself...
To avoid being moderated i won;t post a sell sentiment, but I'd be nervous holding. No hard feelings, billy bailed me out big time and I'm thankful. Good luck.
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