The target is a bit sobering. Minus tax, minus deprecation...
Their prediction of $0.05 per share dividends ($58m) though seems pessimistic. Notice that even with $0.05 dividends in '11 and '12, there is a further surplus of cash of ~$70m PA.
Paying $0.10 dividends is doable still allowing for small growth in cash reserves.
Their assumption is $10.50 nickel price for 2011. This is the main thing to think about. Higher or lower will make a big difference.
And now my nickel market research -
American Stainless Steel imports is up over the past 12 months. report
China steel product production up 15% YoY 2009-2010.