MSB - a new dawn, page-1511

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nippy

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05/05/25

17:35

Post #: 78925366
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Originally posted by Sven62: ↑

nosluggos don't forget

Ryoncil (remestemcel-L) is not the primary treatment for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) in children. It is specifically approved for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute GVHD (aGVHD) in pediatric patients 2 months of age and older who have not responded to standard steroid treatment.

Steroids are the first line of therapy for GVHD. The newest strategies prior to prevent or treat GVJD include post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PtCy), abatacept (Orencia®), ruxolitinib (Jakafi®), ibrutinib (Imbruvica®) and belumosudil (Rezurock®).

Second-line therapy is considered when the first line fails, or GVHD symptoms flare or recur. Ruxolitinib is often used.

Ruxolitinib (Jakafi), Ibrutinib (Imbruvica), and Belumosudil (Rezurock) are all FDA-approved for the treatment of chronic GVHD. Axatilimab is not yet approved but has shown promising results. Currently, there are three drugs that are FDA-approved for use in secondary therapy in chronic GVHD.

Ryoncil is the third line of therapy and is expensive compared to Jakafi at $20,000 per month.

Mesoblast management on approval of Ryoncil were convinced there was significant pent up demand for Ryoncil and they set a price well above expectations. So far they have confirmed 5 patients after 4 1/2 months. The sales team at Mesoblast are working hard to change what people do in a real world practice and I believe they will get there. BUT I suspect they are finding it slower than they thought.

Anyone who has done a valuation on Mesoblast knows that the Ryoncil sales forecast is critical to the current share price in the absence of other FDA product confirmation or a partnership deal and that is why the share price trades where it is.

My Valuation for Ryoncil's valuation of $2.47 per share is shaky as it is pretty clear to me that they are unlikely to average 1.47 children per week for the June half 2025. I hope they are in a position to give some clarity on the run rate and ramp up of Ryoncil in the next few weeks!

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SI has intimated that off label use may surprise so there is at least 2 reasons for you to be very wrong.

MSB Price at posting: $1.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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