Kerebrad in January 2024 MSB’s share price was 31c (mkt cap $180m) I will assume that Ryoncil was 1/3 of that number ie $60m. And after the FDA asked Ryoncil to be resubmitted we saw Msb’s mkt cap soar to $2.28b. A key change in the market was expectation of an FDA approval, GG buying and capital market support. After the FDA approval Msb’s mkt cap peaked at $3.85b.
At that time my Ryoncil valuation was $3b ($2.61 per share and after placement dilution was $2.47) key assumption 1.57 treatments per week.
My comment the other day was simply highlighted what I believe the market is discounting in the absence of knowing the Ryoncil treatment curve. I believe that the market is discounting 1 treatment per week which gives a Ryoncil valuation of $1.97b or $1.54 per share. If we add in the other assets of MSB $120m (9.4c per share) implied value of MSB is $1.54 plus 9.4c = $1.634.
Kerebrad I hope this helps with your question. You could argue that MSB’s other assets have increased in value since January 2024 and there have been positive announcements but nothing confirmatory and nothing that has permanently changed the trajectory of MSB’s share price.
Hopefully this changes with positive FDA feedback due in the next few weeks!
MSB Price at posting:
$1.69 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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