MSB - a new dawn, page-18

I have watched the events of the last few days with a range of emotions. Elation at the approval, guarded anticipation at the market reaction and mild disappointment at the share price falling. When I have these confusing sentiments in my mind I tend to pull back from the current micro experience and remind myself of the macro situation. In my house we call it going to the 10,000 foot view instead of the microscope view of the situation.
For an example, this is the chart of a different biotech company on it's journey from research to commercialization.

First chart is from 2008, first FDA approval for a minor indication is the yellow line. Pretty similar to what we have and are likely to experience in the next few months. Anticipation increase to sell the news to the doldrums of waiting for earnings or partnership. The share price reflects this.

Time went on and the company used this initial product to learn and to build out sales, sales force, staffing, etc. For as much as we all know the potential of the Mesoblast CLBP and Heart indications, even if those products were ready today - the company isn't ready today. I firmly believe that the size and commercial capability of the company are well matched for Ryoncil. It is a fantastic was to start with their pipeline now de-risked.

Now to move forward a few years. Clinical trials, data readouts, FDA application, wait and more wait. But, a second approval for a larger indication is granted. Once again, anticipation increase to sell the news. A lag before the January earnings reveal market penetration and... revenue!
I believe this is what our Heart and Back indications will result in as they march towards these milestones but in a shorter timeframe. Not the 4 years of this example, but starting in 1-2 years for our Mesoblast as they are so far down the road on the clinical trials.


Now we move to current day for the example company. Many products, massive market share and the commercial expertise needed for the large indications to really take off. Ups and downs, FDA rejections, competition and the biotech grind goes on.

Tje
The first two approvals are the yellow lines, the path is difficult and the storyline of this company and our company have a lot in common. For Shareholders at the first approval, they probably felt a lot like we do. However it was their New Dawn (to riff on ddwn's theme)

That company is Regeneron. There have been plenty of comparisons between our company and Regeneron and personally I do see the potential for a similar trajectory and storyline.

This is just the start for us. Technology de-risked with this initial FDA approval. Great things take time to grow and Mesoblast is no different, there will be ups and downs, but from the 10,000 ft view we are doing just fine. It is time to step back from the microscope.

Not advice, what do I know? DYOR, enjoy the holidays with your families and exhale. All is well.

D#