"Accounting for Risk" when valuing a Biotech Company.
Phase I clinical trials have a 15% probability of becoming a marketable product. For those in Phase II, the odds of success rise to 30%, and for Phase III, they climb to 60%. Once clinical trials are complete and the drug enters the final FDA approval phase, it has a 90% chance of success.
These improvements in the odds of success translate directly into stock value.
Derisking products enhances the chance of Partnering deals and potential cash flow from peak sales.
--------------
Graft vs. Host Disease (GvHD)
A conservative value for GvHD alone could be around US$200-US$300m.
This assumes a deal size of US$220m, including US$20m as upfront and another US$25m as near term approval milestone for the paediatric indication.
It is expected the balance to be paid as sales milestones with a portion attributed to approval for the adult indication.
It is assumed,
- A lower upfront to take into account the cost of an adult post approval trial
- High double digit royalties of 25%.
Estimate peak sales of ~US$120m for MSC-100-IV in the US
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97.5¢ |
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0.015(1.56%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.113B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
97.0¢ | 99.5¢ | 97.0¢ | $2.315M | 2.360M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
9 | 119971 | 97.5¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
99.0¢ | 24889 | 9 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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9 | 119971 | 0.975 |
6 | 122008 | 0.970 |
4 | 64464 | 0.965 |
9 | 119098 | 0.960 |
3 | 50000 | 0.955 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.990 | 24889 | 9 |
0.995 | 82010 | 7 |
1.000 | 85216 | 10 |
1.005 | 36834 | 2 |
1.010 | 37558 | 3 |
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