MSB Charts, page-463

Not sure about shouting and not sure about soon, but many analyses suggest the present rally is heavily disconnected from economic fundamentals, that momentum and indices have been diverging for months (around when central bank stimulus began flattening), payments to individuals and businesses have a quickly approaching end date (financial cliff) and historically the second/most dramatic leg of a market crash is out of phase by many months with economic activity.

Add to that the volatility around a controversial presidential election, the outcome of which comes with different economic trajectories (meaning market nervousness because no one knows how to position themselves).

With all that in mind, the greatest incentive for hiding the state of the economy/true value of shares is the window dressing around quarterly reporting — meaning that the reality is likely to be most visible 1.5 months from the end of the previous quarter before preparations for the next round of reporting begin, in the form of a market correction (-28% in the case of MSB across the final half of Jun — though this could arguably be to do with EOFY activity here, in either case pointing to a level of predictability that might motivate shorting).

And this is the most important quarter of the US financial calendar.

Final word — I've been watching from the sidelines the MESO/MSB debate. There are definitely dual listed shares that are dominated by NASDAQ trading. MSB is not one of them. For the moment. But there's a danger of confusing the causal direction here. MSB/MESO SP are determined by ASX trading, but between announcements, MSB/MESO share price increasingly tracks the ASX which is heavily coupled to US indices. So US market volatility and corrections are shorting opportunities that might affect our portfolios and therefore worth anticipating as part of the calculation against share price.

The question in this forum seems to be — what are the shorters up to? Since what they are playing at makes no sense. Something that makes no sense is a risk. Something that makes no sense and only last week shredded the value of our holding is a risk. I'm introducing another angle for dissecting that risk.