MSB 1.02% 97.0¢ mesoblast limited

The purpose of this post is to aid in one's guess as to any...

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    The purpose of this post is to aid in one's guess as to any potential market penetration estimate.
    Feel free if you find any other sources to post them in here as they will be useful in future analysis once good news rolls in.

    Back Pain:

    2017 USA Fusion numbers
    2019 USA Disc replacement vs spinal fusion cost reference
    Surgical Supply Cost
    European Numbers
    European Costs
    European Costs 2

    In USA there were approximately 352,000 Spinal Fusions conduced annually in 2017, with almost 200,000 having been done in 2015
    Disc replacement although cheaper, is still an infant growing market segment ( figures I could find are as low as 4% of fusion numbers )
    Each has direct cost for surgery, along with follow on cost for the remainder of the hospitalization stay.



    Average Total Disc Replacement hospital bill was $66,000 USD versus $100,000 for the fusion.
    Disc replacement operation $37,000 compared to $54,000 for average fusion operation.
    44% of fusion operation costs are typically on surgical supplies ( the screws / cage / plates etc ) $23,760.
    In Contrast, 2018 Europe had only 62,000 Spinal Fusions with an average operation cost of $ 16,000 USD.

    Assuming Spinal Fusion or Disc Replacement remains the preferred options
    3 ways to value Market Cost Size in USD for 350,000 annual procedures:

    23 Billion - 35 Billion Total average hospital stay cost.
    13 Billion - 19 Billion Average Surgical Operation cost.
    8.3 Billion Average Direct Surgical product supply cost.
    1.1 Billion European Market

    Heart Failure:
    Heart Transplant Numbers
    Heart Transplant Cost
    LVAD Costs
    US advanced Heart Failure Patient Size
    European End Stage Heart Failure
    Generalized European Total Heart Failure Cost

    In USA there are approximately 2,000 Heart Transplants per year ( due lack of donors) , with 250,000 US people living with Advanced Heart Failure per year and 60-100,000 of those eligible for an LVAD implant. Despite the high demand, for reasons various the numbers of people who have an LVAD are quite low, globally estimated to be only around 9,000 operations performed per year with the majority in the USA.
    In Europe there are an estimated 1 - 2 million people living with end stage heart failure, with an average cost of 126,000 USD

    Heart Transplants can cost in the order of 1.6 Million USD per transplant,
    LVAD implant procedure is in the order of 175,000 USD with the accumulative final LVAD cost over lifespan of $726,200
    Patients who opted for medical management rather than heart / LVAD implant were faced with total average lifespan costs of $361,800.

    Market Cost Sizes in USD Procedures & follow on care Vs medical management costs:

    126 Billion European Heart Failure Total cost per patient ( 1 million )
    18 Billion - 91 Billion Medical management costs of 50,000 - 250,000 US patients
    4.8 Billion US Heart transplant + LVAD only total average cost


    GvHD:
    GvHD in 7 Major Markets
    GvHD treatment costs
    Acute GvHD costs

    Total number of Yearly cases diagnosed for GvHD was 18,408 for US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan
    Comprised approximately of 10,000 acute GvHD, and 8,000 chronic, both growing at a rate of 2% or 200 people yearly.
    Average treatment costs for AcuteGvHD over 12 months were $123,220 USD.
    For Chronic GvHD 5 yearly accumulative costs were $118,000 ( in 2012 ).

    Market Cost Sizes in USD for 7 major markets:

    1.2 - 2.1 Billion Acute - ( Acute + Chronic )
    Last edited by dachopper: 06/06/20
 
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