I had missed this thread I think when it first came up. Certainly it is very relevant now.
@dachopper has done an excellent job (thank you) as have others on other threads to give some indication of what this company could be worth.
There is an element fo "groundhog day" in my post, so I do apologise. With our investment, nothing has changed until we get our approval. All those on my ignore list (I think I have them all) are furiously posting I expect judging from the responses. I think we should when we meet up at a future AGM play "guess the idiot" where we can put up quotes from these threads of some of our favourite downrampers. I will make sure I go carefully through my ignore list for some old favourites that I expect have moved on.
As I have said before, I started investing about 2 years ago, in the build up to the "approval" for SRGvH and the keenly awaited Heart and CLBP results which had been very promising. Then we were further boosted by Covid Ards. At that time people tried to put a value on what this was all worth. I expect they had a better handle on it than some of those idiots here in the UK with there modelling of the effects of the Corona Virus. Funny how that was taken as gospel and a reason to lock down this country (I cannot speak for others) and people used the excuse that they were just following the science.
Yet with us, we had the data, we were saving lives, we had no side effects to speak off and still it was not good enough.
But if we look back now with quiet reflection (certainly I do) If we set aside the overwhelming argument that we could have saved children's lives if the FDA had granted an approval with "strings" for Rem-L and SRGvHD. If we accept the fact that children probably have died because of that CRL. If we can accept that (sorry I expect we all struggle here) then the FDA had a point and the question put by our "friends" on this thread was that we had failed
There were some "potency" questions to be answered but failure?
Then with the Ards trial, if we can accept that we did not meet the "endpoint" because they changed the trial towards the end which stopped us treating those who would respond. If we can accept the fact that we were in effect "knobbled" by others jumping ahead of us with their potential treatments first, then yes of course we missed out and (again from our downramping friends) was we failed. We have to accept the market correction to our share price, which caused us to lose a lot of followers.
With the Heart and CLBP if we can't accept the fact that we cannot "raise from the dead", if we can't accept the fact that we can't "re-grow" then yes we have failed.
But we have not failed, we have simply learnt. It is what science is all about. What we have learnt is why no one can really value the potential of this company, because when it comes to inflammation and what we can treat there is still I expect much to learn.
We have generated the data, we have identified "reasonable", we have had further "Amyfied" that data with outstanding results under the heading of IBD (i believe that is the correct heading for chrons, UC etc but admit I do get confused). We have learnt and we have a pathway lit bright by that knowledge with our first approval in the US pencilled in for this year.
So for me the big overwhelming difference now than when I first invested, is that I now am very confident it that I have invested in a company that appears to have cornered the market in therapies that with no side effect deal with inflammation. We deal with it in a sweet spot, we deal with it where we can use the terms such as "enduring", "remission" perhaps even "cure". We are so good at dealing with it that people who would possibly have been dead, were turning up to hospital for other reasons, ruining the results of our heart trial. We were so good at it, that doctors were using its benefits to help take people off Opioids which again did not help our trial.
However it is the inflammation market we are in and I am not sure anyone, not even the brightest and the best here on HC (and we enjoy and appreciate their talents) can put a figure on it. We will have to see what terms SI negotiates on any JV for Heart. We will have to see how much of CLBP revenue (and the pricing) we do end up with in the US. Same for IBD, and Covid and Non Covid Ards, Sepsis, IBD and so on.
I would have thought a JV on Heart and the income from SRGvHD and all the off label (I think you call it) use for IBD on the back of that first approval and we will have all the cashflow we need to keep the rest all in house. IBD approval it is own right due to overwhelming efficacy in 2023 anyone?
Biggest danger a determined suitor at this stage. You can make of this what you will but, I do not believe any offer will come before our first approval that anyone would take seriously. Well at that point imo the floodgates for other approvals are open. So unless the biding starts at $50 AUS I am more than happy to wait the (in context) the few months it will take to get there.
So basically the answer to this thread and the maximum size? No idea, but a lot more than the world out there realises otherwise they would be like us holding.
My biggest criticism of this company has been its shareholder communication. I could not be up for the CC. And went on the company website to listen to it afterward. Maybe it is just my Ipad, but the quality of the audio was terrible. SI timescales is the other, but big picture that has only been critical for those with options and I do not understand that market.
So I fear that I may have missed a crucial word or two but it does appear that at some point this year we will "lift off".
Anyway I have sold the children and will be buying a few more shares in the next couple of weeks. Not a lot but am changing my sentiment to buy. IMO anyone who buys at these prices will be rather well rewarded. However only time will tell.
@rurenga, different thread, but you mentioned you were due your "once over". No dawdling mind as we look forward to the maestro's updates in truly turnaround green.
Regards
Yelrom
(20min delay)