First week of August and wasn't that a great week?16% rise...

First week of August and wasn't that a great week?
16% rise without any significant news.
August is certainly is gonna be a significant month in Mesoblast history.

We may even get our first FDA product approval!
How can any SHs not be excited by this?

As expected the market likes the surety of these two dates:

1. ODAC date on 13/08/2020
2. DSMB in early September 2020

Each of these dates are significant.
As discussed last weeks, the unwinding of the ~35m short positions has only just begun, and we are seeing the benefit of this in the SP increase.
It is a simple demand and supply equation.
These sharts have to close their short positions by buying back on market, in the face of SHs not wanting to sell.
Yeah sure they can put up a fight, but resistance is futile

In conjunction with the ODAC date and sharts closing their positions, we'll get compound news with Rem-L Covid-19 ARDS.
I'm still expecting Mesoblast to announce that the data for the first 90 patients are sent to DSMB next week.
What sort of new articles and excitement is this going to make? Will the WH have a say?
How will this not compound the ODAC date?

Ryoncil approval will pave a way for the FDA to extend the label for Rem-L Covid-19 ARDS.
This is the path of least resistance and will allow the FDA to stand up and say that they have an approved product that has gone through a very thorough and safe process.
The stage is set - get on with it FDA!

This will also create a great MOAT for Mesoblast; as we are that "lucky" company with years of science behind us
It will be hard for other companies to get an FDA approved product without the long, arduous and costly FDA process.

So bring on those announcements!

August 2020, maybe news about:

1. ARDS patient enrolled updates (maybe at 30% or 50%)
2. ARDS partnership announcement
3. ARDS data sent to DSMB for review
4. ODAC review (and news leading up to ODAC)
5. FDA approve Ryoncil

6. Leaks from doctors, family & friends in COVID-19 ARDS trial (this has started already, but likely to be escalated)

7. More analysts updates (regarding above)
8. CHF readouts
9. CLBP readouts (only one of #7 or #8, for this month. Yeah, upcoming is not imminent, but the expectations also has not been set to Q4 either)

Potentially, but unlikely for this month:
9. Discussions of Pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome PMIS
10. Crohns updates
11. WH announcement on therapeutic treatment - surely Gilead's treatment is not enough!
12. Quarterly reports

HOLD - the warp speed part of the ride to begin soon

Also,
If you haven't done so already, watch this from @stokdog https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/46357832/single

There are a few things that have been discussed amongst us, in particular our friend @ecoool2 and Alex just re-iterate it:

• Invest in a company that has good management
• A CEO that has passion and conviction to invest in his business
• Invest in a company that you understand - now the science is complex, but Mesoblast is delivering treatments serious conditions - that's not too hard to understand
  
• ...
• The final one is a beauty though, don't sell out too early - let your win run - where have we heard this before?

BTW - Some other big ticket items are also listed herehttps://hotcopper.com.au/posts/44627079/single
And please don't feed the trolls, put them on ignore!


Of course, it goes without saying - all the above is IMO