That's fiddly to calculate for COVID ARDS as waves of COVID infections are difficult to guess. I guess just treat it as growth potential.
As for Non-covid ARDS (the more stable treatment opportunity), assuming pricing is the same as US (which is probably optimistic) royalty revenue for top 5 European countries by population would be about AUD $600M. With less optimistic pricing maybe add AUD $400M royalty revenue.
I've assumed 20% of the moderate and severe cases are treated.
I guess a deal for Europe would most likely be for all of Europe rather than just the top 5 countries.
Depending on P/E used would add $17.55 to $55.28 to the MSB share price.
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12 | 62389 | 1.075 |
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11 | 85445 | 1.065 |
13 | 252801 | 1.060 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.085 | 71293 | 12 |
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1.095 | 148695 | 13 |
1.100 | 93493 | 12 |
1.105 | 23475 | 3 |
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