I have been watching on the sideline for a long time now. I took a big hit and bought MSB on the day it came out of trading halt from NASDAQ listing.
I have also recently double down & tripled down and bought plenty of shares at $1.50 and have sold today all of them.
The recent announcement from the company which trigger the surge in share price to $1.80 Australian dollar is a signal for me to exit the market.
I am posting this post hoping people reading these forums are not mislead by numerous people with vested interests.
Read as much as you can from all sources and then make a judgement before you enter/exit the market.
What I have found from my experiences here, there are a lot of people in this forum with a lot of vested interests. There are two camps.
1. The first camp is the people who bought it at much higher price and wishing that the company share price go up. You can see them keep "talking up" the price.
This probably to recoup the significant losses in their portfolio.
2. The second camp is the people who have lost faith in the company/people watching on the sideline. When the going gets tough, they will bail out and cut short the losses.
So MSB from neutral perspective since I am no longer holding any MSB shares.
The first question that need to be asks what are the risk in investing MSB?
1. The first number one risk I can see is cashflow issue
2. The second biggest risk is products might not be approved by regulators
3. The third biggest risk is "proven in use for human usage"
Lets deal with issue number 1
a)The recent news announcement from the company on the Japanese aGvHD is an old news.
You can see the article below on september 2015. The reason for recent shareprice rally almost dumbfounded me since this is an old news and I would assume the market already knew about this.
http://www.copyright link/markets/e...pproval-for-stem-cell-product-20150923-gjswss
a.1 There has been analysis from Macquarie that has put a target price of $1.30 AUD.
The main reason: Mesoblast will have to raise another $1 Billion on current cash burn.
There is no new information yet on how the company plan to deal with cashflow issue.
a.2 There is also question on aGvHD which is not new. It has been approved in NewZealand.
This does not make sense.
I do not quite understand if MSB has already an approve product in New Zealand why there is no revenue?
and Why Japan will be special case? Taking into account the cost of ramping up.
Second Biggest Risk
b) It is hard to put a quantitative probability of what products of MSB will be "Approved" and which will proceed to "Commercial Stage"
I am putting all the MSB products with a ranking of Medium to High Risk based on the nature of regulatory approval.
Third Biggest Risk
c) Lets assume that the company managed to get Regulatory Approval.
There is no information yet how the "stem cell" are manufactured.
How does the company ensure that the stem cell will be fit for human use?
How does the company will ensure that there will be no cancerous cell?
How does the safety case is being derived?
I assume producing 74 million stem cells is no standard feat and there is a risk for cells to malfunction and become cancerous cell.
With all these risks, my sentiment is to sell.
(20min delay)