This is really an appeal post to anyone that wants to jump in with their contribution.
I would be very interested to see as the dust settles what the short position is across both markets as I understand that there can be a lag.
As many have pointed out, the Company has a track record of non delivery and there is a pattern of rising share price on the tide of rising excitement then bad news that send the shares crashing and profits into the hands of those who bet against it.
There has been speculation that the CLBP result will also miss key targets and to be fair if you believe that the company will be true to form, why would you not take a short term bet on another crash? Then add in whether you believe that Novartis will pull out of the ARDS partnership and Capital raising potentially required a such a low share price and it is from that point of view a first class "calamity cocktail."
Other more esteemed posters, have raised the prospect that there will be a gradual transfer of shares from the ASX to the Nasdaq. Now I would be curious to see how long it takes to register shares across (I presume for the large amounts of shares they would have a fairly swift process therefore any delay can be ignored). I also presume that they will also show up in a register so that we can track this and perhaps that information can be added to this thread?
Now I have read on this forum that the ASX tends to act as a short term trading exchange, whereas the Nasdaq you have more of the long term growth investors. Yesterday with all the volume on the Nasdaq could you have had some people borrowing stock to sell and then buying it on the ASX at a "discount" and re-registering it to pay them back. I believe the term is "arbitrage"?
That ironically will be I think, good for us long term holders who believe in the prospects of the company and more pain for the shorters should the market turn quickly.
Be that as it may, If you are simply shorting because you believe that history will repeat itself then you will be holding still as the next move if bad news may have a $1 AUD at the start of the share price. If that is the case then my thoughts are, what an amazing opportunity for us!
When I look at my shares, the first batch I brought end of March/April 2020 were something like $1.40 ish, a month later it had a high $2/$3 at the front it. To have an opportunity to buy at $1ish. To be honest even though I have no more money put aside for investing, I would even borrow money at that level (up to you whether you believe me). It would bring my average cost per share down a treat.
Why I think that your reporting of the short position
@vasilios is going to be interesting is if we see the % remaining so high then as far as I can work it out, it must mean that they reject the hypothesis of a paradigm shift in the almost immediate prospects of the share price upwards, and bad news is on the way (again!). Now Monday was good news and yet it was not the really good news that I am talking about, just good news as the data revealed the potential. Anyone who watched the pre-market trading on the Nasdaq and the sheer numbers traded as the price rose 100%+ will appreciate how quickly good news (and that is not really good news) travels steeply up. However again here we have a free pass (as this argument goes). It was not that long ago that the share price was $5+ and $20 plus (and I was sitting on a £250k profit planning my imminent retirement, lesson learnt!) What were we waiting for then srGvHD approval and then we had these other trials. Please correct me but I cannot remember anything else.
Now we are $2.50/$11.50 ish and all of these are IMO still in play, other than from the data released on the Heart were we now have a potential market much bigger than before and confirmation of how we make a difference. More data to support our srGvHD appeal and can point to a growing market in Japan, and a potential joint venture in all cause ARDS and a much better understand of how we should be used in Covid Ards and no worries about safety and we still await CLBP results, where even there, if we have messed up another primary endpoint, someone will be able to work out how we can help with inflammation that causes so many problems with opiate abuse in the USA, and I am sure I missed something, ah yes we are a platform therapy with lots of other treatments to come and then there is the takeover options as we have all the patents.
So many good things that I have written a sentence with loads of ands because I did not pay attention at school.
So if the shorters are wrong, well after a trading halt, what price after really good news will we start at? $5/6. Then you will have some 10-13% of the shares that have to be brought as they cash out, but why should that price drop back as that is no where near its longer term price? So what a market to wait for a while as it goes up knowing that the shorters will have to buy and lack of liquidity will spike that price big time if you want to reduce your position. (Depending on Price that may have an appeal to me)
Does anybody believe that the roadshow presentations (just posted on the company website) will not have been noted by institutions who when they buy will buy to hold? So what happens then to the shorters? They say you "should not catch a falling knife" (thanks for the quote from OP post) , conversely if you hang on to a rocket it will take off and you are going to get burnt in this case to a cinder.
Look us long term shareholders are holding as we know that the science has shown us that there is good news to come this year. Whether it is the next announcement in line or not, it will when it comes completely re-value this company. Therefore if the price drops first we have a free hit to make hay.
So let's see where the short position is over the next week and act accordingly. Either way it will turn out to be good news.
Today Nasdaq may correct down and if no good news for a week or so, shorters will be busy banging the negative drum on our Forum. However we only have to wait.
Regards
Yelrom
(20min delay)