MSB 4.66% $1.46 mesoblast limited

Always a good question to ask...however the shorters often get...

  1. 442 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 12313
    Always a good question to ask...however the shorters often get it wrong . Take for example NASDAQ listed AMRS which announced a $255m deal today. The short position was 18% in November and it is now 7% pre announcement. The bears really started closing in December when another $50m deal was announced.
    https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/02/05/1710584/0/en/Amyris-Announces-255-Million-Cannabinoid-Development-Licensing-and-Commercialization-Agreement-Represents-Largest-Collaboration-Agreement-to-Date-for-Amyris.html

    MSB spends approx $22m per quarter primarily on ongoing Phase 3 trials and commercialisation of its manufacturing processes for 2 potential blockbuster products. This is peanuts compared to the average costs of obtaining FDA approvals.
    Considerable advances in production methods such as single use bioreactors with micro carriers will have greatly reduced future production costs over the last few years and MSB is on record in its last conference call stating that its production process was now "serum" free.  JCR actually concluded their IP license with Osiris back in 2003.They received marketing approval in September 2015 and the first sales of product began in February 2016. Temcell is kept stored at minus 130 degrees C until immediately before use. JCR jointly developed a liquid nitrogen based ultra low cold chain system with MEDIPAL so as to deliver a stable quality product. Temcell is now available as a therapy in over 54 clinics in Japan and sales are promising.  So promising that in Bell Potter's latest note they disclosed that MSB received an unexpected additional $0.5m sales milestone payment from JCR, taking milestone payments to $1.5m and royalties to $3.6m for the last financial year (from sales of 989m yen).

    Analysts appear to believe that MSB receives royalties from JCR on Temcell sales of approximately 25%. After 3 years of selling Temcell , JCR are now looking to expand their relationship with MSB. They have successfully concluded phase 3 trials for EB and on October 29th 2018 they announced JR 031-EB would be an expanded indication for Temcell. Maybe the shorters know something that JCR doesn't know...or Tasly for that matter.

    I suspect the shorters are hoping for a dilutive raise but need to realise that  If SI concludes a global licensing deal they will not have the opportunity to be gifted stock at such a low level. Within a few months we should have the BLA application submitted for aGVHD with the FDA, a 12 month read out on  CLBP is due early April and we already know that the Revascor CHF trial has only just successfully passed another futility analysis. There are always competitive threats on the horizon with Bio Cardia CardiAMP heart trials and Incyte's Ruxolitinib, but at this valuation the shares have in my view more than priced in potential risks..... I bought more shares today. I think shorters might still weaken the shares a little further but I cannot take the risk of being on the sidelines just in case we get a global partnering agreement ....which appears highly likely in my opinion.



 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add MSB (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
$1.46
Change
0.065(4.66%)
Mkt cap ! $1.667B
Open High Low Value Volume
$1.41 $1.50 $1.40 $5.699M 3.943M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
5 122380 $1.46
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$1.46 11015 2
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
MSB (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.