Hi Pledge,
I have said this before, but for what's it worth, I believe that some of your criticism of the Mesoblast management team is justified. First principle, you are a part owner of the business who has invested your hard earned cash and certainly judging by the share price, the business has caused concerns or a least raised questions that should be answered.
The communication has been poor in the last few months. I share your bug bear about the release of of the CLBP results. They gave us a range of time, missed it and said nothing. It appears that the broker was informed and February seems the latest "estimate". It invites criticism and while my thoughts are that excessive stridency can over do it, what constitutes strident is subjective and a lot of your posts just make me laugh and we could all do with more of that. As said behind that mirth lies salient criticism that should be aired, and it is for the rest of us to judge what is just "letting off steam".
Now if I may throw the next point open to discussion as I really do not know for sure as I have only been a shareholder since April. The Heart trial was some 5 years in the making. Therefore (please somebody enlighten me) the "context" of how and when the primary endpoint was selected is important. We have a PR/Investor relations department and they could also provide this context. Our criticism has the advantage of hindsight so we maybe have to couch it in questions rather than statements. Here it is mine-
"could you explain the thinking at the time of selecting the primary endpoint and what risks did you identify behind that selection."
I would be interested in knowing that answer.
The delay in the release of CLBP
"Could you explain why the delay so soon after we were given the date to expect them."
Here I am prepared to cut them a lot more slack as I can think of a number of reasons on the "3 wise monkeys" principle alone or the virtue of timing. They cannot hold back price sensitive information so not knowing may help. I don't know and quite happy to just let that one develop.
The failure to obtain approval for srGvHD
Here Pledge is I feel our biggest divergence over substance . Their strategy was to go for the single arm trial with the approval of the FDA as Orphan disease, no approved therapy etc. Of course there was an overlap on the 12-18 age range and perhaps the up to 12 would have been more appropriate. Calling out the FDA publically on that change of mind is not going to speed matters up. You yourself seem to have come down on the side of Dr JK keeping her own counsel on the FDA decision and the impact it will have on children who need our therapy now!
As to the significance of the "Legal letter" subject to much speculation on HC? Well I expect it won't be the first or last that the FDA have seen. I do not see that as being significant. The FDA could (as they will) have given us approval if they had chosen to do so, without fear of successful legal action from whoever paid for the letter. Their change of mind is best left for the appeal.
SI has been the driving force behind Mesoblast and for what is is worth has my full support. There will come a time when it is appropriate to hand over the reins but that time is not now. A change would signify panic and there is no need. It's a volatile stock, it may fall further if the next news is bad but that is the nature of the beast.
So next news, can we agree that it would be best if it was rip roaringly fantastic?
They now know a lot more about how and why the therapies work. Therefore they might have a more accurate prediction of the CLBP trial results. Let's say that believe that they maybe good news but not in the only measure the short term share movement seems to follow, which seems to be primary endpoints.
We want good news!
Joint Venture on Heart with major pharma - Good news? % chance of it happening ? - Higher or lower than CLBP results?
Apply that to all the awaiting news
srGvHD appeal process
Novartis JV confirmation and release of trial data on Covid Ards.
Maybe when the delay is put into this context of course as a reduction in risk, a few weeks of drift and nothing important to post about on HC (which is why I said that I would not be posting, apologies for this and one other post) is a small cost to pay. Then again, it might just be that they haven't got the data.
Finally, you have posted about what Pledge could stand for or infer. Well to me you represent and articulate to certain degrees the concerns of many a shareholder at this time and of course 100% your own views. I would note to all, that in many a post, there are invitations for the company to prove his doubts wrong and in fact a desire to be proved so. On that point Pledge I am sure that all long term holders of Mesoblast shares will agree with you. I have invested as I believe that will be the case. However when it comes it will not diminish the validity of you making your criticisms at this time.
Finally, finally, your suggestion that we talk this through with our children. Great idea, unfortunately mine don't listen to me, they say I am too long winded and terrible at explaining things. Can't think why?
Regards
Yelrom
Expand
(20min delay)