“Teva never gave money to MSB...Cephalon did...But that was...

“Teva never gave money to MSB...Cephalon did...But that was almost a decade ago.” For one so pedantic you are really stretching your interpretation Madamswer...i expected more from you. Let’s get the chronology straight shall we !

On Dec 7th 2010, Cephalon and Mesoblast entered into a strategic alliance which required Cephalon to invest US$130m with milestone payments of $1.7bn as well as subscribing a further $220m at $4.35 per share for a 19.99% stake in the Company.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cephalon-and-mesoblast-enter-into-strategic-alliance-to-develop-and-commercialize-novel-therapeutic-products-for-regenerative-medicine-111470844.html

On March 29, 2011, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. of Canada offers to buy Cephalon for $73 per share, or $5.7 billion.

• April 5 Cephalon rejects the bid ..saying the offer undervalued the company and its experimental product pipeline.

•Valeant, a day later, begins a proxy battle and puts up its own slate of candidates for Cephalon’s board of directors.

• On April 21, Valeant sets a deadline on its bid while Cephalon’s board urges the company’s shareholders to reject the offer.

• Teva steps forward to buy Cephalon for $6.8 billion.

Now i am willing to accept that Teva was really interested in Cephalon’s CNS portfolio rather than the cardiovascular assets, but the relationship with Mesoblast was only terminated five years later in June 2016...just three years ago (when Teva’s high debt levels dictated disposals be made of non core assets). So Cephalon may have made the commitment.. but it was Teva that splashed much of the cash. They had already recruited over 230 heart patients for the chronic heart failure phase 3 trial by the time they backed out as strategic partner. In the 2nd quarter of 2016, when Teva ceased its cooperation agreement, it had to write down $258m for previously recognised drug development (remember they only were entitled to 60% of the revenues) ...not to mention the $171m write down on its investment stake in its 2015 accounts.


https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/blog/john-george/2011/10/how-the-cephalon-teva-deal-unfolded.html

Now despite the fact that after several successful futility tests and a 85-90% completed CHF trial for Revascor, which is now only months away from completion, you continue to point to the weakness of Mesoblasts balance sheet, rather than appraise, the risk adjusted net present value of Mesoblasts portfolio like any decent analyst would do.....that tells me all i need to know. I also disagree with many aspects of the Bell Potter research, particularly their aGVHD valuations, but I realise that on conclusion of a successful CHFphase 3 trial for Revascor, some of its upside valuation may end up appearing too conservative ! So Madamswer, what is the right valuation in your opinion ? I will not hold my breath.