MSB Trading - 2019, page-75

After hitting high at $2.34 and low at $1.03 and eventually finishing 2018 at $1.16, MSB share price was one of the most volatile, worst performance on asx. MSB kicked off 2019 with more positive share price movement.

While I cannot really tell whether MSB filing with FDA will be successful nor the clinical results of its phase 3 trials, MSB is really close to getting the final verdict of the commercialization of some of its tier 1 drugs in 2019. In my opinion, 2019 will be the make-or-break year. For investors, the risk with MSB might be way too huge at first sight, with its fate depending on FDA approval and clinical results. However, from the perspective of technological value, MSB patents in stem-cells in major markets with 4 major products close to commercialization have significant strategic values.

In my opinion, the difficulty in using short-term cash flow or profit to value MSB might misguide the market but also presents an opportunity for investors who are able value the stock from other perspectives, such as rights to strategic technology, the partnership opportunities and the probability/benefit of becoming the first mover in stem-cell treatment, all of which can potentially shed light into its long term profitability, which is what really matters.

I am still a strong believer in MSB's technology and its potential contribution to medicines.

In 2019, I would really take notes of the following events.

1. BLA filing for Remestemcel-L for Acute Graft in early 2019. (it's already approved in Japan)

2. BLA filing for Revascor for End-stage heart failure in 1H 2019. It's clinically effective in reducing bleeding, but unsuccessful in temporary weaning, which is not particularly meaning since it does not equate to weaning to explanation, even if temp weaning was achieved. On the topic of temporary weaning, the drug worked well on ischemic patients (heart muscle becomes damaged due to blockages in the coronary arteries, which carry blood to the heart), while unsuccessful in treating Non-ischemic patients (not related to known coronary arteries diseases, could be inherited and much hard to treat). Reference: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/16841-cardiomyopathy

I think the prospect of Revascor for end-stage is still bright. I believe FDA is likely to approve it on the basis of its benefit to reducing bleeding and in no way, FDA wants it to be a magic drug and requires it to fix temporary weaning in non-ischemic patients (which itself might be an inherited disease, might be too complex to cure with the current medicine)

3. News on phase 3 trial of Revascor in advance heart failure should open door to global partnership, given the majority of patients in the advanced failure are ischemic.

In short, 2019 has two BLA filings (last major block to commercialization) and there are potentially significant partnership opportunities surrounding Revascor in advanced stage, given the clinical result of the drug in end-stage is finished and favors bleeding reduction and treating ischemic patients.