MSB Trading - 2019, page-52

The price is set in Australia (actually Melbourne) and we closed yesterday at $1.295 and the opening match this morning was indicated pre-open at $1.295, then $1.30 bid and $1.32 offered.

The $US closing price was equivalent to $A1.294.

US volume trade was only 47,000 ADRs (235,000 shares) so it is only 20% of Aussie trading volumes.

The small number of people arbing between US and Aussie prices aren't doing much at this time of year and don't want to take the risk of big intraday moves in either market with the conference next Monday at 2pm - so they just close the US price in line with what they expect in Australia.

Also big currency moves in the past 24 hours make an arb between US close and Aussie open more risky than normal- for those trying to schnipple a few pennies it's not worth the risk.

US stock is tightly held by a few big funds and a few aficionados. Do a google trends search on Mesoblast worldwide for the past 12 month mths - US searches are only 4% of those in Australia (the equivalent to Searches from Belgium!).

I hate to point it out, but Mesoblast is not on the radar in the US. That could be a great opportunity in the future for when it gets some breakthroughs, but it'll need to be good results in big indications, I don't think aGvHD will move the awareness needle.

That doesn't mean the share price can't leap in anticipation of partnering deals or cash flows, just that the share price will be driven by Australia (and maybe a bit by NZ).

The US price is meaningless to us in Australia unless an announcement is made outside of Aussie trading times.

The US has its own demand and supply factors - a big one was tax loss selling in the last week of December, putting downward pressure on the US price relative to Australia. That has now finished and the US price is moving back in line with the Aussie price.