MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-10201

Great morning, Messers! Mezzes? Hummus? Hungry.

Disclosures and Intro:
- Had an interest in Moderna since Feb / March, not anymore; and
- Very optimistic and bullish on MSB.

My earlier post in relation to Pfizer's release (48752903) is a good pre-read before getting into this one. The key takeaway from this post was premature celebration on limited data and one of the other things I noted was "integrity" and general "human greed". You'll recall since my post the CEO's implications re selling his shares near the 52-week high, before they came down and settled the day afterwards.

Moderna & Pfizer
Like Pfizer, Moderna:

1. Not triple blinded (like MSB), makes me unfortunately question integrity;
2. Very small sample looked at (95 of ~30,000, whereas Pfizer was a similar 94 of ~44,000);
3. This small data sample has not been peer-reviewed;
4. Too early to tell any side-effects - so far so good thankfully;
5. We do not know the length of immunity;
6. Unclear / unconfirmed whether the vaccine prevents individuals becoming infected with the Virus and passing it on, or whether it prevents them from merely developing symptoms - the protocol of this trial is such that the participants had to show symptoms of the Virus and a positive test result to be a "confirmed case";
7. Relies on mRNA, which has never been approved in commercial medicine for humans previously; and
8. Still requires two months' of safety data before any Emergency Use Authorisation.

Unlike Pfizer, Moderna:

A. Does not need to be stored at negative ~80 degrees so does not have the logisitcal challenge Pfizer is currently facing; and
B. Has provided additional data on the small sample size i.e. of the 95, 11 had severe cases, 15 patients were over 65 years old and 20 from diverse communities. I'm glad Moderna released this data cf. Pfizer.

Overall, vaccines cannot be as definitive as Mesoblast's data will be, once released. I'm not picking on Pfizer or Moderna, I mean in general across all vaccines, we don't know how many of the placebo participants go out take public transport, are in crowded areas, don't wash hands etc. The takeaway here is the lifestyle choices of participants may have a material impact on findings. It's never apples and apples with vaccine trials such as these. With Mesoblast's, we are treating a very specific group - severe cases, clearly infect and require support where nothing else is working. This is what I'd call definitive.

What does this mean for Mesoblast / My Hard-Earned Money?
Both points A and B are very important. A because we need vaccines to be distributed without the challenges Pfizer faces and B because of what explained in my earlier post that Mesoblast cannot address the entire market. We need a vaccine - and it won't hurt your wallet. I thought I'd illustrate this points using some numbers as opposed to just my words - because not everyone should take my word at face value.

This is what I provided as my "Conservative" scenario on 18 June on HotCopper:



If I simply updated the deaths to today's figure (and left all other assumptions as presented above), the expected share price across the four columns would be $32, $65, $97 and $129, respectively

Now, if we assume a very optimistic scenario for vaccines (be it Pfizer, Moderna or other) and assume a 90% effective rate (not discounting for those who will not take the vaccine and continue the spread so in reality the 90% figure should be lower), this is what an updated calc, on conservative assumptions per above may look like:



As usual, I'm wary of sharing my moderate and aggressive assumptions for claims of ramping, but you can imagine they're good.

In Closing:
@dolcevita, I've read your queries directed towards one of my earlier posts and I will address them when I have time - I haven't forgotten or ignored you. Meanwhile, I always thought of you walking past here:



Side hustle?

Separately, @Celestial - idli, sambar and vada?! Seriously? Are you going to tell me next you also make dosa and chole bhature?! Can we all meet at Dolce's cafe once I'm back in Aus?

@kervio - love your 'nerdface' analyses. Many thanks to all the other high-quality posters as well.

Finally one of my favourite indications of good times coming up has resurfaced. It's a sophisticated technical indicator and not many can comprehend; however, Taco.

Miss you, E2.


Kia kaha
AM.