MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-10837

Another great post fro@LeftYahoo on the Yahoo board - Left-e noticed you hadn't posted it here, so spreading the good info. Love the ATHX note - its been interesting to see how many ATHX shareholders have sold up their ATHX holdings and moved it to MESO from the comments they've put on the board.

Left-e32 minutes ago

The Novartis deal is fantastic news for Mesoblast shareholders. Some of the reactions on this board amaze me. To all those who are trying to read something into it regarding the CHF or LBP trials, to those who are disappointed by the terms of the deal, to those who “predicted” the deal, and conversely to those “totally surprised” by it... it might be good to review some history. This deal didn't happen overnight. In fact, there's reason to believe management was contemplating a partnership with big Pharma starting day 1 when they boldly announced plans to enter the C-19 ARDS space back in March. How can we know that? Well, by May the company was making this “subtle” disclosure in its quarterly filings: “Mesoblast is in ACTIVE discussions with potential pharmaceutical partners with respect to its plans for ramp-up of commercial manufacturing for remestemcel-L in COVID-19 ARDS.2”. (emphasis added).
So, surprise, surprise. Going after the ARDS market, which is many multiples of the childhood aGVHD market, I think we can say the company would have been remiss NOT to partner. No way a small biotech taking on the disease of the century could have handled a roll out to all the ICU's of the nation going it alone. A deal of this nature has been in the works for some time independent of what happens with CHF or LBP or Crohn's or any other indication.
Are the terms of the deal fair? SI clarified that issue very well today at the AGM: The deal has a potential value of 1.3B USD + double-digit royalties on sales + the potential to expand, and it's the second largest deal (this year?) in all of Australia business. AND it must be judged in terms of the strengths $200B market cap partner Novartis brings to the table. Among which are yes, marketing capacity, but also regulatory muscle, ie the ability and know-how to get a BLA on a cell-based therapeutic over the FDA finish line. Novartis knows how to do that where - let's face it - Mesoblast had a stumble. For whatever reason you want to name: corrupt FDA, QC issues, insufficient data... whatever. The fact that Novartis indeed CHOSE Mesoblast, when they had other options out there, should put to bed the scalability and manufacturing issues the likes of CavScout keep harping on. You think $50M up front is too thin? How would you feel if the deal had gone to ATHX with Mesoblast left sitting alone facing a stubborn FDA and awaiting unknown C-19/CHF/LBP results. We'd be south of $10. Don't be greedy, folks. This is a great deal. Read the ATHX board. Their shareholders are watching a train wreck on their board of directors. And like all things ATHX, it's a slow moving train wreck (that most of them are misreading). Count your blessings.