I'm still devastated, but recovering!
Both from the SP and lots of drinks
I've been wearing rose tinted glasses and these failures are hitting me hard
Having read some of the posts, but not many - I'm sadden to see some of the LTSHs having had enough and sold out.
If only the results was positive! I really wanted to enjoy drinks and
with everyone.
Anyway, it's up to each individual to look at their own circumstances and do what's best for them.
For me, I don't like to sell in a panic and therefore will re-assess when I have sufficient time to do so.
There are so many posts that it is hard to go through them, but the ones that standout to me are:
A few months ago when we looked at MSB, there was so much in the pipeline, so much to look forward to.
Through one reason or another, 3 out of 3 had failures, with the C19 ARDS on Friday being the hardest to take.
As much as the trials are a scientific process, the trial design is looking more and more an art than a science.
Did Mesoblast go too conservative on the CHF primary end point and went too aggressive on the C19 ARDS primary end point?
Did the science work or were we led up a garden path?
Let's look at them one by one:
- Ryoncil - well, ODAC 9-1 was very telling and the lead investigator is still very supportive of this product
- CHF - is getting a 60% reduction in mortality rate a bad thing? of course not, it's ground breaking - and the lead investigator is supportive too
- C19 ARDS - now we know the primary end-point was 43% reduction in mortality vs the control group - that's pretty high for a conservative SI - so why did he aim so high? Obviously there was enough in the EAP and other data to suggest that this figure was achievable. NIH sponsored and lots of quality hospitals signed up to do the trial during the pandemic. Now, these hospitals would not be selling Disalloweds would they?
So where to now?
- Risks - yeah you can drum up a list. From no future with the above three, to Novartis walking to CRs
- Rewards - only need one positive for the SP to go back up. CLBP and partnership will do the trick
The question is is the SP going to go down more and can you cope with that risk?
Or is the SP at value atm and it's worthwhile to buy and hold on?
You can make up your own mind.
Lucky for me, I was able to have a proper discussion with my wife and I'm safe & away from the dog house
So whilst I'm still down, I'm not knocked out.
I feel like Rocky and ready to screen Silviuuuuuuuuuu!!!!!
In the meantime, take care and enjoy the rest of the weekend
Hang in there all remaining and stubborn MSB'ers
Oh - and just for the record. This is all IMO - just my musing.
I'm a SH and this is my first post over this weekend, and yet I see so many other non-holders who "cares" so much about MSB SHs - it must be the Xmas spirit
(20min delay)