MSB 0.80% 94.8¢ mesoblast limited

MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-2425

  1. 8,320 Posts.
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    all that covid is a full waste if money and time - what do you mean? investing in trying to treat the sickest people caused by covid?

    the vaccines will be ready earlier than the first lot of 100 units of our therapies
    . please tell us how exactly you know this or came to this conclusion? feel free to link the science on this. how about ards outside of covid related ards? (this is semi-rhetorical, because i don't want you to link me articles to news articles about "hope on vaccine trials"...).

    price is crazy. People insist in compare with hospitalisation but as soon they manage to vaccinate no more hospitalization - what price is crazy? the share price or price of treatment? the $$ value damage to hospitals trying to treat the severe ards cases is costing $$$$$, remestemcel-l will be peanuts relative to these costs.

    i cant say about the ards caused by other reasons but highly likely this other situations will be required additional trials. This is true (although looks like you may have slightly contradicted your first two points lol quick to say the studies are a complete waste of time and money and that there is no point beyond the vaccine?), but we will have alot of data points on safety from the covid trials and other indications. Not much of a hurdle in the grand scheme of things.

    i wrote that b4 and this delay just make the project comes too late. Too late relative to what? you have suggested vaccine but no evidence that this is on the horizon. no other treatments are as close to being successful as rem-l, if anything mesoblast will be early to the party.

    the overwhelming was Ann should be on JUNE we are in September and not sure even if will be.... You have lost me here..

    the price factored all ... now plenty of backwards chances and very few upwards.
    you could start with analyst valuations...
    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/tracking-valuations.5376187/

    check out the posts by wombat on this thread: an example of a potential valuation for non-covid ards treatments that he was kind enough to do (lol and love your original comment under his work - you wonder why you are attacked constantly 44428845 ):


    as you are about to say "...at least for while..." yes thats right... so lets discount this 5 years by 30%:

    $66.56 / (1.30 ^ 5) = $17.26. lets times that by 40% chance of success to suite our negative bias too why not: $17.26 * 40% = $6.90 that's the approximate price you should pay today for the value for non covid ards discounted at a whopping 30% p.a. (would invite you to investigate on your own what rates analysts typically discount cash flows) and assuming a 40% chance of success. non-covid ards alone! Now I will grant you that you can play around with these figures and you may think they are nonsense, but at least its rationalized and provides some insight, whereas you have provided nothing.


    the share at least for while is fully priced again refer above...

    Last edited by Armyne: 02/09/20
 
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