Based on 10,000 doses in 6 months and 20,000 in 1 year this gives the initial value of COVID-19 approval of $40 per share, of course based on assumptions:
- $60,000 per treatment (2 doses, $1.2b revenue)
- 10% royalty payment to Osiris (maximum assumed, $120m)
- cost base of 40% ($401m)
- additional business costs of $78m (based on last fy)
- no income tax accounted for (although others have noted msb has around $500m in tax credits so tax would be minimal at least for the first year)
- ($60,000 x 20,000 x 0.9 x 0.4) - $78m = $601.2m/586,586,780 = $1.02 per share x 41 (p/e ratio of csl) = $41.82
MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-4269
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