MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-799

It's Sunday afternoon - a time for reflection.

My exam
I've been looking back and I've noticed that I've been investing in Mesoblast for a few years now.
When I've started I was pretty much a greenhorn in the field of biotech, but as the years go on, I've picked up quite a few certificates along the way

That's what investing in Mesoblast do to you, it challenges you and force you to step up and learn.
So, I would like to thank all the valuable contributors on HC who has helped to teach me along the way.
That's the beauty of HC, so many valuable contributors with different knowledge and skill sets.

As with quite a few of us, when I sat the exam on Thursday night, I think I pretty much passed the science exam, much better than some of those on the ODAC panel

Risks
Mesoblast has had it's up and down through the years.

So let's get the risks out of the way first:

1. Cash - I was worried about Mesoblast cash position prior to the last two CRs, but now this should be put to bed. There is no more concern on the cash front, and any posters who raises CR again can be dismissed. We are about to get more cash from the sales of Ryoncil and partnership $$$
2. Acceptance of MSC - bringing the paradigm shift in medical treatment is not an easy feast. But, now that we've got the ODAC recommendation, the FDA approval is not too far away. The god father of MSC has given his rubber stamp to Ryoncil and the good Dr. Kurtzberg has endorsed the product. Also, Covid-19 will also bring acceptance of a new treatment, as the solution to this pandemic is paramount!
3. FDA approval itself - On what basis can the FDA go against the ODAC 9-1 approval recommendation? FDA may have some strings attached to the approval, but they will approve the product. Also, if you read the tea leaves, why would FDA force themselves in a corner like that? They guided Mesoblast with the pathway to approval. They gave us rolling review, priority review, EAP on ARDS and MIS-C, and P3 trial on Covid-19 ARDS. They would look foolish to now turn down Mesoblast and would stifle future innovations in medicine - why would anyone else trust the FDA?
4. Failed Covid-19 ARDS trial - there's always a risk, but I have faith in SI & team. They would have not put their other product suite at risks to pivot to a new indication if there wasn't enough evidence to support taking this opportunity. Also, the EAP, the backing of NIH and the approval of MIS-C EAP have all given indication that the product is a good fit and the trial will be successful. All that is remaining is the % of success
5. Failed CHF readout - if there was one indication that SI should be passionate about is this given his background. So, again I back that he would not put his reputation on the line given his specialty in this area.
6. Failed CLBP readout - I trust that Grunenthal have done their DD and would not sign up to something that the data does not support, given that they have expertise in the pain treatment area
7. Macro environment - this is the biggest risks that we have. If the market crashes, Mesoblast will not be able to escape. But, I'm hoping that we get off lightly as we have the solution to Covid-19.

MT SP guesses
Today I want to focus on the MT rather than daily SP movements.

Given all the upcoming events here - https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/46566020/single
All I can see is an upward surge of the SP.

Mesoblast us still pretty much an unknown spec stock in Australia. In the US it is even more unknown. This is all about to change.

ODAC approval recommendation is just the start.
So IMO we are all early birds here, there's heaps of value to come
At the start of the financial year, I've had a back of an envelope guess with this https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/42188126/single
But, back then we didn't know anything about Covid-19 ARDS

So now, I would like to add $10 to this estimate and look forward to $30 at the end of this year.
Crazy right?
But, it is all about our mindset.
When we get pass $5 then $10 does not seem that far away anymore.
When we get pass $10 then $30 does not seem that far away anymore

On friday night we had almost US$0.5B traded, that's right US$500m.
That's huge, talking about a global behemoth in the making - the interest in Mesoblast has just started and it will snowball from here, assuming that each of the milestones are reached

Chart wise, the SP has not been at these levels for 5 years.
It doesn't happen by accident
Once a huge ship has turned upwards, it will keep going - it is gonna be hard to stop it.

So, next week we'll start to see $5.
With each news drop, time and more publicity we will quickly go upwards.
All my risks & concerns are diminished now, so there is not much to be stressed about.
I'm just happy to sit back and watch the great Mesoblast team deliver the results - we all seen it, we are lucky to have such a powerful, committed and unified team.

That's enough from me for now, I would like to hear other posters thought on how and why the SP will reach a certain target by the end of this year.

I'm happy to enjoy this ride with all the MSB'ers
This is gonna be an exciting ride guys, so just HODL

BTW - please put the trolls on ignore. Trolls are any posters that do not follow the posting guidelines. They'll just wear you down.
Thanks @taylorstjames for helping with this.
But, if you have to respond to the trolls, then please use @postername