I think you should expect drops below $3 and perhaps even below $2 over the next few weeks, and I am well prepared mentally for that to happen (and will likely be buying more when it does).
We dropped to $1.09 in March on pretty much the exact same portfolio of potential products - the only differences being:
(1) the AGVHD CLR as a negative. To be mechanistic about this (and I think the market is pretty much always mechanistic), let's say the market views this as a -1, or perhaps even a -2; and
(2) the ARDS trial as a positive. In my view, the market that doesn't really understand the gravity of this trial, so let's say this only rates a +1 in the market's view.
On paper, and from the most mechanical analysis possible, the negative of the CLR (-1) is only just balanced out by addition of the ARDS trial (+1).
At worst, the CLR as a -2, where it could be viewed as blocking the science altogether, preventing MSB from making any money in the near term, where the FDA shows its antipathy to the science when even a disease that kills kids cannot get through to approval, and thereby actually putting us in a MUCH WORSE position.
So from that view, the ARDS trial is just background noise, and doesn't at all balance out or make up for the horror of the CLR and the dismal picture for MSB's near-term prospects.
Accordingly, if we dropped to $1.09 in March...on pretty much the same portfolio of products...where ARDS is given little to no credit to counter the CLR's negative impact... what on Earth is there to prevent us from dropping that low again (save for the set price of the CR from earlier this year, to a degree)?
Personally, I would rate the CLR as a -1, clearly.
But ARDS? Sheesh, that's at least a +3 or +4.
If it succeeds, it's MASSIVE, and leapfrogs the company into the forefront of modern medicine, helping to solve an ongoing global pandemic. Of course it's possible, but I just cannot see a reasonable way for the FDA to reject any application stemming from a successful outcome in the ARDS trials. And there is your elimination of ANY negative impact from the CLR.
But the analysis that you have do undertake to reach that conclusion, even using this mechanical analysis, is just too much for "the market" to undertake.
Instead, the bad news of the CLR dominates, and the ARDS trial is viewed as a bit of a "meh." Add in the delays to readouts on the CLBP and CHF, and that only adds to the market's suspicion and unease about MSB's future prospects.
So without news, expect the worst. To paraphrase Bette Davis: "Fasten your seat belts...it's going to be a bumpy ride."
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