MSB Trading - 2020, page-1227

(For abundant caution, I have deleted my post above, and re-posted it with a minor redaction. I always feel uncomfortable referring to private exchanges.)


Well, I was specifically referring to Ichimoku analysis, so I didn't discuss the last candle at all. But I certainly hear you!

Let me preface my comment, by saying that I wholeheartedly agree with you when you say "I understand there's a pending announcement to come anytime soon which may make any candle signs meaningless".

As a further caveat, I don't pretend to be a TA guru by any means. I'm still very much learning, but I will never let TA be my ultimate guide. I think FA trumps TA in the long run.

Moreover, as far as individual candlestick patterns go, I do NOT believe they are very reliable. Bulkowski, who runs ThePatternSite.com has done a deep dive analysis and found (I believe) that they are less than 50% accurate. Don't quote me on that actual figure, as I don't have that particular reference handy right now. However, I believe he has admitted that, overall, they are not reliable. Of course, he's just one man, albeit, a well regarded technician, so make of that what you will.

Now that all of that is out of the way, I will simply say that I was watching the price action on Friday (as I'm sure were many others) and it was quite heartening to see that after the initial run up in price, and the subsequent fall, price recovered to finish where it started. The Bulls managed to fight back against the profit takers. Again, make of that what you will. I think the most we can infer is that it represents uncertainty, as the Bulls face off against the Bears (though I think "profit takers" is a more accurate characterisation of the latter) .

Honestly, I really wouldn't mind a period of consolidation right now, so I'm not bothered by that last candle.

Just my uneducated 2 cents worth, so please, I don't want anyone to rely on my random musings.

Happy Australia Day, and good luck to all of us.