The only thing your calculation didn't factor in was the requirement for the short sellers to reacquire their 27m shares. If MSB's share price reaches $5ish the short sellers will need to reacquire.
I agree that if the FDA approve MSB treatment there will not be enough shares to go around towards the end of 2020CY.
Basic calculation below shows the problem new MSB shareholders could face.
Assumptions
top 20 own 73% X 85%
Residual owns 27% X 60%
MSB Trading - 2020, page-1254
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Last
$1.03 |
Change
0.080(8.42%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.176B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 95.5¢ | $1.03 | 95.0¢ | $43.38M | 42.28M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72752 | $1.01 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.03 | 205100 | 2 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| MSB (ASX) Chart |