MSB Trading - 2020, page-12909

You're right, share price can tumble sharply with a poor readout/announcement. My most recent experience was PXS tumbling by ~50%. That was a bad day for me. Similarly a few of us held during the LVAD debacle. The good news for MSB though is that they have 3 bites of the phase 3 cherry (excl. GvHD). Timing will be everything, if we start off with one positive readout, a subsequent poor readout would to an extent be hedged. If we start off with a poor reading, there will be alot of hand wringing. Irregardless, whilst there's no guarantee in biotech, MSB is looking pretty good for its GvHD position which I think a few here have shown would probably justify an approximately $3 SP (more with label extensions in the long term). I truly believe that Ryoncil will become a franchise product (IMO). It then becomes a matter of opportunity cost, because even if it tanks, if one is patient, the SP should hopefully return to ~$3. The LVAD experience is telling in this regard, as those who held steady would have made at least 50% from the high before the LVAD readout and about 3 bags from the low post the announcement. In any event, this is all what I tell myself at night when I can't get to sleep.