MESOBLAST LIMITED (ASX:MSB) - MSB Trading - 2020, page-14994 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by kervio: ↑

Some studies showed no significant difference to share price on entering major indicies, but there are others that have shown there is a significant effect to the share price on inclusion (https://www.nber.org/digest/nov13/w19290.html), especially if your share's weighting is not right at the back of the index. Some of the more popular index funds that super funds and retail investors buy are actually ASX 300 (Like Vanguard VAS) and Mesoblast is already a percentage of those portfolios (in VAS we are 0.11% or 125th highest holding which is accurate for our position in the market).

Existing funds already holding MSB:
For the ASX 300 and other funds thats MSB was already in, they have likely been re-balancing upwards on MSB shares as the price has gone up, and new money comes into the fund. This amplifies the effect of retail trader enthusiasm in this stock a little, like algo traders do when they buy in on a surging stock and sell later to collect a few pennies. This artificially extends runs higher than they would have gone.

ASX200 funds:
For the funds indexing the ASX200 they started buying in the closing auction, and will continue to do so. I think another poster mentioned that the accumulation from passive index investors is pretty constant. Super funds and the like injecting regular funds into the stock as more money enters their management accounts from people's contributions etc. All that has to happen is the share price is propped up for a while on good news and then things will build slowly. I know a lot of people here were expecting a bit of a boom (say 10% increase) on inclusion - it's not realistic for one day... but a 3.5% increase for the day is fairly major considering no other news, we're just used to explosive 20,30% moves on crazy covid news being released. On a normal stock people would be happy with today. There is an outstanding question around where all the sellers came from to satisfy such a massive auction volume while remaining at $4.14, could be people specifically trading into these expected large trades (especially instos releasing shares from the capital raise)... could be profit takers closing positions for the week... could be some kind of options trading... but it is hard to know what happened unless we receive a notice of a change in holding or something. It's best not to worry about it too much, but to watch what the price does over the next few trading days.

Other ASX200 perks:
We're now going to get talked about more by analysts (for better and worse), we'll be purchasable in more investing strategies (some strategies limit purchases by ASX200 inclusion or by market cap minimums). We're going to have some underlying support at the auction price today from insto funds not wanting to lose money for their clients, and we've got a less fluid share registry which means big news spikes should spike a bit harder upwards when the bloodthirsty demand for shares on a huge news day kicks in.

Overall sentiment:
Lots of people here have either purchased at crazy low prices or bought in after the first covid announcement, or bought the dips here and there. Virtually everyone reading this except the people that bought at the height of the hype train or people in the future should be holding a pretty nice unrealised profit by now. This is a good place to be, and personally I'll be eating the popcorn and watching the fireworks from here. July August will be fun months, and lots of days to lose our minds to come. Hopefully ASX inclusion and hope trickle us up to about 4.40 or 4.50 before the covid trial results drop.

If you haven't read ecoool's newest post it is good reading on his thoughts around what might happen after ASX200 inclusion without the benefit of hindsight. If you want to understand a little on how the after market auction works, there's a slightly dry but very comprehensive guide here: https://www.asx.com.au/documents/public-consultations/asx-equity-market-closing-and-settlement-price-determination.pdf and thank the Lord it has an exec summary at the start.

Cheers holders! Been a fun ride so far, and I hope it continues the same!

Expand

Thanks Kervio. That helps.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
15	14923	$1.44

No.

Vol.

Price($)

14923

$1.44

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.45	429682	25

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$1.45

429682

No.	Vol.	Price($)
11	12934	1.440
6	11247	1.435
9	40109	1.430
9	60948	1.425
6	18305	1.420

No.

Vol.

Price($)

12934

1.440

11247

1.435

40109

1.430

60948

1.425

18305

1.420

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.445	13000	1
1.450	378819	22
1.455	71617	7
1.460	47376	6
1.465	4941	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

1.445

13000

1.450

378819

1.455

71617

1.460

47376

1.465

4941

(20min delay)
Last $1.45		Change 0.050(3.58%)		Mkt cap ! $1.621B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.41	$1.45	$1.40	$2.582M	1.814M

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