Hello again, Blasters
Apologies for not posting more frequently as requested, @ddwn however, I have not had much to add over the past week – there has been little change.
In this post, I will explore my thoughts on timing and sites, provide my “aggressive” analysis, as requested by @dplane, a note on the recent noise and hopefully some words to calm our nerves based on logic that helps me sleep better at night.
First, @fullmetal100 and @Celestial – I am not @ecoool2. I have already self-professed to being an ecoool2 fanboy, so while I am flattered by the accusation – I hope ecoool2 is not insulted!
Second, thanks to everyone up-voting and providing light-bulbs to all the quality posts – makes it much easier for a reader to identify the insightful ones.
Third, @LawyerTrader may have indirectly suggested I am one of the “pumpers” who are in fact dumping (via a cute dino meme). I do not think, with respect, too many HC regulars own sufficient shares to materially move prices – and I especially do not think they will base their trades on my scattered posts. I am not delusional to think my posts have such weight! My only intention is to share my thoughts to help others in understanding the stock and / or situation, as I have been encouraged to continue doing so.
Timing & Sites (ARDS)
Referring to my earlier posts – I have always thought mid-July would be the interim ARDS readout. My question on whether I can pick up another parcel on July 15 when I get paid next, while a little in jest, was also based on my belief in timing. It could be touch and go. You will also note other respected posters have indicated July and even August. Ask yourself – how does two, three or four weeks change your life or outlook on this stock? Will the outcome (significant share price increase) be any different whether it is announced this morning or in a fortnight? (Pssst, the answer is no).
It is all well and good to draw inferences from smoke signals such as Twitter feeds or various interviews – and we should. It is important to watch your heavily weighted stock very closely. However, if you look at the clinical trial itself, you will note all locations are still “recruiting” and not “active, no longer recruiting”. This means they are still recruiting, and the 30-day endpoint will be 30 days after they reach the “active, no longer recruiting” status. Of course, there is a chance this has not been updated, but I prefer looking at official sources such as these to try get smoke signals – I get impatient, too!
Dr Grossman during the investor call emphasised – using several words with the same meaning – that MSB wants to ensure the data is squeaky clean. This will take additional time.
There is no reason to expect an early readout and build your own expectations to be let down if your expectations are not satisfied. This will only result in anxiety over something we cannot control. Let it happen. It will happen – good or bad.
Granted this is easy for me to say as I'm in the green – but I have still lost a material sum on paper last week, which nobody enjoys experiencing.
Separately, I have read some confusion on the 10 or 15 VS 30 “sites” (FYI, @PFB63). Please note sites may have several hospitals e.g. Mt Sinai has eight and Cleveland Ohio has ~18. Not each hospital at each site will be recruiting.
The Aggressive USA ARDS Valuation
Disclaimers first. This is speculative, my view, far left-field and urge you to DYOR. This is also based on the mid-to-long-term. The real value of ARDS is likely to lay somewhere between the conservative valuation and this aggressive valuation – dependent on certain factors that we do not have visibility over at this time. Refer to my earlier posts for conservative and moderate valuations.
I have several assumptions and workings behind this short snippet, which will not fit in this post:
While the final valuation looks ridiculous, the assumptions (while aggressive in this scenario) are not impossible. Please x3 note this is an aggressive valuation, for the mid-to-long-term.
The Noise
We are all aware this thread is becoming very clogged. I still urge everyone to post their views with at least minimal decency! I value alternative viewpoints; we need to hear all sides. If there was no opposing view, we would not have a market.
I have only one member blocked who made a racist comment about another poster “I guess English is not your first language”. Maybe it is not. So what? I am currently writing this piece in my third language. I would love to see you say more than “hello” in a third language – not that I ever will because you are on ignore.
We have had naysayers / downrampers / very annoying humans at $1. Again at $2. Different ones at $3. And we have [new] ones now. It will always be a part of any success story.
“Woosa”
While I have previously posted a potential 30-60% downside if ARDS was to fail, an investment in MSB was very well worded by@HCuser3 – it is an “asymmetrical investment” (as illustrated in my valuation above).
Further, biotechnology stocks’ futures are generally binary i.e. success / failure of a treatment directly and materially impacts the share price. We have three major pending outcomes! Draw that in your probability tree and calculate your E(r) – surely this suffices to stay positive and hold?!
You should not need others to pump the share price in the short-term for you to self-validate your investment thesis. Everyone has different risk profiles – a risk / reward ratio satisfactory to you may not be to another. I recall working on a sell-side of a large, private manufacturing business in Dubai two years ago. The potential buyer was a German publicly-listed company. The Dubai business had significant upside, but a very large black-box during the DD process. It also had transactions in and out of shareholder accounts, which management explained, and I quote, as “bribes for BAU”. This scared the German business away due to their mandate, low risk-tolerance level and general differences in doing business. The deal did not go ahead but it was not long before a local strategic player snapped the Dubai business up – and has extracted a lot of value since.
@kazambol and @longinthemoney provided good analogies for holding stocks during dips (house and temperature examples, respectively). I like the seed analogy. When you buy the right fertiliser, ensure sufficient moisture, nutrients, sunlight and plant your seed – you do not dig it up every other day to check whether it is sprouting. MSB’s radicle has already emerged, and it is not long for the hypocotyl to surface. Trust yourself.
Woosa & kia kaha
AM. (given one person has already identified me - well done and I am glad you are holding!)
(20min delay)