MSB Trading - 2020, page-17711

LongStock4 hours ago

The U.S. government purchased 500,000 treatment courses of remdesivir from Gilead at a cost of $3,120 each. This equals $1.56 billion dollars and it is only a 3-month supply for the USA. Europe was essentially locked out of the supply on this first manufacturing round.

Simple math says the annual supply for the USA would be $6.24 billion and once the supply expands and Europe gets to buy then their revenue will probably double to $12.48 billion.

All for a product that Gilead themselves admits:
“Modestly shortened recovery time by four days”
“Did not reduce fatalities”

That is all well and good, but Mesoblast has a product called remestemcel-L which completed a short trial of 12 where 9 lives were saved and they are now running a 300-patient confirming trial which will hopefully produce similar results. [That trial started on May 6th, 2020 and expected to complete in 2 to 4 months.]

What do you suppose the government will do if the results are confirmed and that remestemcel-L will save about 75% of the lives? Will the USA and Europe suddenly decide to buy $12 billion dollars’ worth of product from Mesoblast? I think they will.

LongStock 2 hours ago

What happens to the Meso share price when the government buys out the first manufacturing run of remestemcel-L for $1.5 billion-dollars? If you use a 31 P/E like REGN has would that translate to a $232 share price? A good question.

The cells grow and double in size every week while they are in the Lonza growing trays, wait another week and we could have $3 billion-dollars worth product ready to go.

That enough to get the investment juices flowing.

Excellent proposition!

Gltah