Dear MESsiahs
A little late for my weekly post here; however,I am currently grappling with this:
The decision has been made – (short) post first.
Today, I will quickly recap my previous three posts’ valuations (for ease of reference) where I discussed conservative, moderate and aggressive scenarios in relation to USA-only ARDS, then share my thoughts on likely short-term price movements (a first for me – I do not usually dive into short-term expectations but thought it might be useful and spark some healthy debate).
Before I begin – thank you to the posters on these threads. Not only finding very relevant information but being selfless enough to share it with our group – most recently@TrueBlueBull Much appreciated. I remember reading it at 0400 and had so much energy I ended up at the gym by 0430!
Recap of USA-Only ARDS Speculative Valuations for the Mid-to-Long-Term:
Conservative (Posted 18 June)
Moderate (Posted 23 June)
Aggressive (Posted 28 June)
I need to note the usual disclaimers – highly speculative (especially when you cannot see my detailed workings behind this), DYOR etc. per usual; however, given recent events and information I do not think the above valuations are sufficient. Remestemcel-L has the potential to be far more than ARDS. While we all knew this, it is starting to eventuate and the likelihood (assuming FDA approves it for ARDS, first) of new/ additional illnesses potentially being cured by Remestemcel-L continues to increase.This reminds me of Deep Heat from my high-school days playing sport. Sprained ankle? Deep Heat it. Sore hamstrings? Deep Heat it. Failed a test? Rub some DeepHeat on your head. Remestemcel-L could be the Deep Heat of serious illnesses.To distinguish Deep Heat and Remestemcel-L, Deep Heat has many close substitutes for what it does – Remestemcel-L does not. I simply cannot see any drug (just wanted to check if Dolce is reading) that has a promise to deliver potential solutions for such a wide range of critical illnesses.
Embers, not smoke. Most of you are aware I do not look too much into smoke signals, but the children’s trial as well as America already gearing up to use Remestemcel-L in certain states from the end of next month (subject to FDA approval) as part of care covered by insurance are signs of embers. This provides me with additional comfort that the cost (general estimate of $75,000) is not too high. I still think we should avoid getting too caught up with Twitter for signals. We have recently seen a bit of a farce(reposting an old Tweet then deleting it), which is not unexpected! I would not recommend trying to read between the lines of a Tweet… I am currently consulting for an ASX-listed business and its Twitter lead is a child! Stick to clinical trials (such as the one@TrueBlueBull posted) and other, more informed,and dependable, sources.
My MSB valuation (as opposed to USA-Only ARDS) is still a WIP and am not ready to share it yet. I also do not want this post moderated because my model is currently generating numbers that sound ridiculous (for now).
Likely Short-Term Price Movements:
You will recall I expressed a likely share drop from the run at $4.20+ based on a run too hard, with the absence of something tangible to run on. The share price as suspected decreased and we endured some painful days (fake pain if you did not sell). The run up today is warranted albeit understated, in my opinion.
Where to from here?
As I wrote in one of my earlier posts entering the ASX200 brings with it increased scrutiny, which is good and bad, I also mentioned we will be in those “silly” AFR midday charts and that we will have higher highs and lower lowers – at faster rates both ways. This has all held true to date. Given what should have been price-sensitive news early this morning, we managed to be on the top end of the midday chart today:
As usual, our popularity has beenwell ahead of others:
Today we have also been featured on news channels and articles – this will only increase if things go well (or badly).Everything we do is magnified and share price movements will reflect this.
I also discussed differing risk profiles and how investors (both, retail and institutional) with lower risk appetites will happily wait for ‘more news’ or ‘more certainty’ to invest for a more likely;however, smaller, upside. With more news such as today’s announcement imminent,that certainty or comfort level of success increases – bringing MSB into the spheres of an enlarged potential investor pool i.e. more buyers, more demand. Hold tight.
Americans, in general, are more bullish and understand biotechnology stocks better than their ASX counterparts. I expect the Dow to break above 26,000 overnight and MESO to increase over and above where we closed today. Chart for convenience:
Note the foreign exchange has recently played in our favour.
Given we now have a tangible reason to experience a share run, I do not expect a retracement (barring any bad news) to occur at the level we have recently experienced.
@ddwn and @Armyne I speculate the share price to be within $3.90-$4.30 until the 30% interim readout (or the off-chance of an Orange endorsement this week). The difference from being at this range now compared to a fortnight ago is that now we are more deserving to stay here. I also think the EAP (Children) results will not take too long to be released – early September would be my guess. In relation to the interim ARDS readout, I still think mid-July and still cannot answer my question from my previous post – will I have another chance to buy more when I get paid on 15 July?!
Guess what? This post almost completely ignored heart, back and the PDUFA date. So, I suppose those are nice things,too…
Kia kaha
AM.
(20min delay)