In my opinion Mesoblast will make only one announcement...

In my opinion Mesoblast will make only one announcement regarding the C-19/ARDS trial when the last patient will be dosed. Of course the 90th patient is important and @ecoool2 in his latest post emphasized that this should be disclosed to the market. I believe that although important it is only material if the results are considered overwhelming by DMC, and the committee renders its opinion after analyzing the data, which takes some time (2 weeks I think).

At the time of the enrollment of the 90th patient Meso (or any other party including DMC) doesn’t know the result, therefore the event as such is not material. In other words if the company judges the information to be material they would be in a way preempting DMC decision process. Some other companies wouldn’t mind doing so (G, C, M ...) but not this one.

We are certainly impatient to hear this news and it would certainly bring in enthusiasm but maybe also too much excitement while we wait for the interim results. Often this proves detrimental to SP.

If we refer to Dr Grossman answer to analyst Jeffrey Cohen during the earning call on May 28, full enrollment should take 3 to 4 months and the first 90 patients should be dosed in “two months or so”. In his yahoo finance interview on last Friday 10th he comforts us by confirming that the trial is progressing well, which means that they are at least on schedule.

As the trial started on May 7, it is now in the first week of the third month. During the last month C-19 spiked considerably in the US and 14 out of the 15 hospitals are located in the top 18 states which were the most affected (Except Duke, North Carolina). The enrollment process reported to be sluggish early in the trial (re @ecoool2 post, Poor communication between hospitals) have improved.

I think we may expect the enrollment to be above 50% of patients right now, since less than 2 months are left In the schedule estimated by Dr Grossman (3 to 4 months).

Further, being an optimist person, I tend to believe we are close to complete enrollment. It doesn’t seem unrealistic given the unfortunate spike in the US that each of the 15 hospitals would’ve proposed the trial to 1 patient every two to three days.

Why would a patient‘s relative refuse to enroll him in a trial where the therapy has tremendously increased the chances of being cured compared to SOC?

PS: ecoool2 knows this company much better than I do but I thought I’d write this while we wait

GLTASH

Cheers