MSB Trading - 2020, page-21923

Good pick-up. The delay (well past required 30 days) in updating recruitment status on clinicaltrials.gov for CHF could be quite relevant for ARDS trial.

I’ve been doing timing math based on expectation that recruitment locations and status is at most 30 days old. If being a bit tardy with clinicaltrials.gov updates isn’t considered a big deal, we could be further along than we thought.

Another issue has occurred to me looking at the aGvHD AdComm and Lassman objection documents. The less warning your competitors have, the less time they have to prepare an objection. With likely super fast approval processes for Covid19 treatments, in a hectic pandemic world, that time could really matter.

Obviously, there are market sensitive trigger points that MSB would have to announce at. Other than those, it could make sense to have as little out there as possible. Be a bit tardy on updating clinicaltrials.gov and maybe competitors will get caught with their proverbial pants down? Maybe extra sites recruiting but not listed yet? Maybe some sites no longer recruiting because their quota is full but not listed as changed status? Maybe try to avoid clues of amazing progress right up to the moment you announce full recruitment and 60% at 30days interim analysis on the ASX?

I know I’m dreaming, but it is fun to imagine (even if very unlikely). Just think of the likes of Lassman desperately trying to cobble together an objection in no time flat as the MSB team hit the FDA up for an urgent ARDS approval.