I also expect a short squeeze over the next 10 days leading up...

I also expect a short squeeze over the next 10 days leading up to the big day. Why would anyone in their right mind keep a short open when the probability of success next Thursday week is probably 90% at least? (I am not pretending to be basing my pure guesswork on scientific data so don't base your investment decisions on my guesswork)

Talking about probabilities , we also have a double shot here on the remote chance the pediatric aGVHD needs more work to get the approval. In that 1 in 10 scenario case, we then have an even higher probability of still getting approval for Covid-19 ARDS within a few months. I put that probability as 99%, or 1 chance in 100 at failing. Taking both indications together, IMO we have less than a 1 in 1000 chance of failing both. I eagerly accept that risk, given the likely upside if ARDS or both indications get approval.

Does anyone else have a better handle on the probabilities?

10 days to go for the first hurdle!